The fears of arbers have not gone away in 2022 either. Everything is the same: “arbs are dead”, “what if the bookmaker bans you?”, “what if the topic dies?”. Therefore, strategies that differ from the standard ones and do not allow bookmakers to "calculate" the surebet are always popular. Some are born and die, but arbs express have proven their viability. Today we will talk about how to link surebets with parlays and how such a link works.
Surebets Express: Definition
The answer to the question "What is a surebets express?" may seem obvious: these are accumulators, according to the results of which we get a plus, regardless of how the sporting events end. But this is not entirely true ... or rather, not at all. To better understand how it all works, let's first dwell on the very idea of accumulator bet insurance.
The average bettor (not an surebettor) loses money in a bookmaker's on margin. Therefore, throughout the existence of beeches, players came up with various “win-win” betting strategies. Express insurance is one of them.
It arose after players became disillusioned with strategies such as Martingale and d'Alembert, which are usually called "catch-up" in the world of sports betting. How they work:
- we are looking for several events in a row with approximately equal chances of a positive outcome, let it be Total Under and Total Over with odds of approximately 1.93-1.99; matches must follow each other and not overlap in time (one event ends and only then another begins);
- we bet on the first match the total under 1.96;
- if the bet did not win, then we bet on the next match also on Total Under, but we increase the amount of the bet in such a way that we win back the previous loss when we enter;
- if the next bet wins, we start over, if not, we continue in the same vein.
Such strategies differ, in a dignified way, only in how the bet increases - in arithmetic or geometric progression. They came to us from roulette, where they were used on red/black bets (hence the bets on an equal line). The problem is that they only stretch the loss in time, and do not allow you to win. Adherents of these strategies take advantage of the fact that people do not really delve into the mathematics of the process.
The chance to reach such a level of catch-up that the bet becomes unbearable is quite small. But bookmakers won't let you do it – the bet size is always limited. Therefore, literally after 5-6 steps you will hit the ceiling and the strategy loses its meaning.
After the majority realized this truth (although there are still enough players using catch-up), there were "gurus" who offered "improvement" - express insurance. The essence of the method:
- you also continue to "catch up" with matches, for example, by a Total Under;
- matches are selected from 4 to 6 (according to different methods);
- at the same time, an express Total Over is placed on all selected matches.
The calculation is that even if the six stages of the catch-up do not play, the express will play and there will be a profit. But there is no profit here.
We will not bore the reader with detailed mathematical calculations, especially since this will lead us away from the topic of the article. But we offer the most inquisitive to do it on their own: you will see that such a "strategy" is untenable from the point of view of mathematics.
You are probably wondering now: why are we telling all this for so long if the whole strategy leads to a loss? But we have not yet touched on one important factor – the connection of express and surebets. After all, so far we have been discussing coefficients that already have a "minus" in the form of a bookmaker's margin (1-93-1,99). But what if it's a surebet with coeff/ 2.1 and 2.1? More on this later.
Express on arbs
It's time to finish with the theory and move on to practice: a visual example will make it more clear how the method works. To begin with, let's take a simple and understandable example . In reality, you won't encounter this, but it makes it easier to understand how everything works.
Seaching surebets. It is better to do this with a scanner – it saves a lot of time and simplifies the process. You can see the description of the most reliable programs in this article on our website.
We are interested in two surebets that give two (no more) bookmakers. Important condition: matches should not overlap in time. Ideally, if they follow each other. Let's assume that we have found such two arbs:
15:30 Team 1 (bm 1) W1 coeff 2.1 - Team 2 (bm 2) W2 coeff 2.1
18:00 Team 3 (bm 1) W3 coeff 2.1 - Team 4 (bm 2) W4 coeff 2.1
For simplicity of understanding, we assume that no draw is possible here.
The total amount of the bet that we are going to make is 10,000 rubles. (5000 rubles for each). Let's take a look at what the calculator shows us if we act in a standard way.
To calculate, we will use the BreakingBet calculator, which, in addition to standard functions, offers multicurrency, a rate converter, commission accounting and much more.
Total 250 rubles profit from each event, total profit 500 rubles - remember this figure. We proceed to overlap the event with express.
Express 1 is put down in the bookmaker that is the donor of the surebet. If you still don't know what it is and how to use it, check out our article on this topic here. So far, let's briefly say that this is an bookie, the coefficient in which can change quickly. Let's assume that in our case this is BM 1.
We get express: W1 W3 with a total coefficient of 4.41. We put a quarter of the bank - 2500 rubles.
After the express has already been put down in the donor, we move on to the second bookmaker and the second express: W2 W4 coeff 4.41. The amount is the same – 2500 rubles.
You've probably already noticed that we don't cover all the "arms" with these two express, but of course we can't put a press from the events of different bookies. Therefore, we add 2 ordinaries to our express for the first event:
- Bookmaker 1. W1 2.1 - 2500 rubles.
- Bookmaker 2. W2 2.1 - 2500 rubles.
We wait until the first match is over and analyze the result.
Let's assume that team 1 wins. This means that we have a that we have a win bet on on W1 (a net gain of 5250 rubles.). We also have a "arm" that has not yet been blocked – this is a bet on W4 in BM 2. We send all the profits from the ordinary to this event, i.e. we put the ordinary on W4 in the BM 2 - 5250 rubles.
Accordingly, if team 2 had won the first match, then the profit from the ordinary, which we put on team 4, would have to be put on team 3 in BM 1.
We are waiting for the end of the second match.
If the express won, then we get a win of 11,025 rubles at a coefficient of 4.41 (we bet 2500 rubles). In total, the bank for both surebets was 10,000 rubles, hence a net profit of 1025 rubles.
The second option is that the express does not come in, but played an ordinary for team 3. We consider: 5250 rubles. on kef 2.1 we get 11,025 rubles. Minus the initial bank of 10,000, there remains 1025 rubles net profit.
Now we remember how much we would have received with a standard draw of these surebets: 500 rubles. It turns out that when surebetting with express, we increase our profit more than twice – a huge figure.
Simplified technique of surebets express
At first, you can use a simpler method, until you hone your skills and get used to quickly calculating express bets. It differs in that only one express is used here. Let's look at an example. Let's take the same situation as in the "full version" for clarity of comparison:
- 15:30 Team 1 (bookmaker 1) W1 odds 2.1 – Team 2 (bookmaker 2) W2 odds 2.1
- 18:00 Team 3 (bookmaker 1) W3 odds 2.1 – Team 4 (bookmaker 2) W4 odds 2.1
As in the previous example, we put the first express from the donor:
W1 W3 with odds 4.41. We put 2500 rubles
Further, the differences begin, so from now on, be more careful.
Instead of the second accumulator, we close the second shoulder of the first surebet with an ordinary in the second bookmaker: W2 with a coefficient of 2.1. Rate 2500 rub.
We are waiting for the result of the first match. If you played an ordinary, then we fix the profit of 250 rubles. If the first match came from the accumulator, then we close the second arm of the second match in the second bookie (sorry for the tautology). W4 bet with a coefficient of 2.1 in the amount of 5250 rubles. Why exactly so many? Because we are playing against the odds of the entire parlay, not just the second match. We get the following picture in the calculator:
We get the final profit of 3275 rubles. But from this amount you need to subtract the bet on the first ordinary - 2500 rubles. Total we get 775 rubles.
As you can see, this method is much more profitable than the one described above, but it brings more than just closing the surebet with singles and at the same time is somewhat simpler than the two-press method.
Let's take a look at a real-life example with real odds to make sure that the system works not only in cases where situations are close to ideal.
Scanner breaking-bet.com offers two surebets for today (12 January 2022).
The conditions are met: the second match starts much later, both surebets are in two identical bookmakers (1XBet and Parimatch). Plus, in the first match there is an obvious donor, he is also the initiator - this is 1XBet. So let's start. We allocate 10,000 rubles for these surebets.
We put the first express from the donor - 1XBet. It will consist of the following events (both football):
- Australian A-League. Sydney - Brisbane Roar (number of fouls in the first half) Total Over 10.5 odds 2.24.
- English Premier League . West Ham - Norwich X2 with odds 5.8.
The final press coefficient is 12.99.
What amount should we bet? We allocate half of the amount for two express trains, and the second will go to the ordinaries. We calculate the amount of money in the calculator based on the coefficients of the first arb and do not take into account the coefficients of express bets. We get:
We bet on the first express 2506 rubles.
We put the second express in Parimatch from the following events:
- Australian A-League. Sydney - Brisbane Roar (number of fouls in the first half) Total Under 10.5 odds 2.25.
- English Premier League. West Ham - Norwich P1 with odds 1.38.
We already know the amount - 2494 rubles. Final odds - 3.11.
In the example, approximately equal coefficients were obtained, but this, of course, will not always be the case. Just follow the procedure and the calculator will tell you the bet sizes.
We put ordinaries on the first match. Those. these are the stakes:
- 1XBet. Australian A-League. Sydney - Brisbane Roar (number of fouls in the first half) Total Over 10.5 odds 2.24. Amount 2506 rub.
- Parimatch. Australian A-League. Sydney - Brisbane Roar (number of fouls in the first half) Total Under 10.5 odds 2.25. amount 2494 rub.
The amounts have already been calculated in the previous steps, so just drive them into the coupon.
We are waiting for the result of the Australian A-League match.
If Total Over is playing, then we bet the won amount (5613 rubles) on West Ham - Norwich P1 with a coefficient of 1.38.
If the result is Toyal Under, then we bet the winnings (5612 rubles) on West Ham - Norwich X2 with a coefficient of 5.8.
Those. we overlap the last arm of the surebet, as we did in the example. It remains to wait for the inevitable profit.
Express on surebets from three or more outcomes
Once you understand the principle of the technique, it will not be difficult for you to bet on three or more events. It’s just that in these cases you will have to reinsure more shoulders: after each match, put a single on the outcome that was in the lost accumulator. But only a simplified method will work on such surebets, because. there are options to lose both parlays after the second event.
And there are more nuances. Firstly, it is difficult to find three matches at once, which will have surebets in two bookies. In fairness, we note that on weekends at the height of the season this is, of course, not uncommon. Secondly (and most importantly), there are much more risks that the surebet will disappear before you have time to cover all the shoulders and put down all the parlays. Thirdly, even if you do everything in time, the odds of subsequent matches can change dramatically until the previous ones are over.
Therefore, arb parlays with three or more events are a risk. If you see such matches, then it would be reasonable to combine them into two pools of two surebets. And do not forget about the complexity of the calculations themselves of such outcomes. Without sufficient experience in arb betting, it is better not to start betting on events with three or more outcomes.
Pros of the arb express method
- The most obvious advantage is a significant increase in profits (more than twice).
- It is much more difficult for bookmakers and their anti-fraud systems to detect an arber betting express bets than betting on singles. Press bets are initially considered unprofitable, which is why they pay less attention to them.
- You can reduce your workload while maintaining the same income. Because profit on parlays is higher, you can afford to bet less surebets. An additional plus in this approach is safety, because. there are fewer bets and the bookmaker does not see the player as a threat.
- Costs for creating new accounts are reduced: fewer bans and accounts work longer. It also lowers the risk that the money will remain with the beech as a result of blocking. Total - additional profit due to savings on associated costs and risks. Not to mention the time and nerves spent.
Disadvantages of surebets express
- High entry threshold: The method is quite complicated. There is no doubt that many of our readers will have to practice a lot before everything is learned at a sufficient level. Especially difficult situations are presses from more than two events.
- Many introductory matches (consecutive matches, both surebets in the same bookmakers) lead to the fact that the situations will be much rarer than simple surebets.
- The risk that the odds will change quickly while you are calculating accumulators and bet sizes in the calculator. We can say that these are standard arb risks, but there is a big waste of time here. The coefficient on the last leverage can “crawl” especially strongly, because. it will take a few hours before you can put it on.
- Each bookaker has a limit on the types of outcomes that can be included in the express. For example, many can block a bet on total fouls from today's example and offer to bet only an ordinary. Of course, this can be circumvented by setting a limit in the scanner, but this, in turn, will further reduce the number of possible surebets.
Summing up about surebets express
So is it worth it to surebetting at all? Yes, it's worth it. But at the same time, you need to understand that it is unlikely that you will be able to earn money exclusively on them due to the rarity of the situations themselves and the complexity of the process. But as an additional way to increase your profit from surebets, this is a great option.