Value Bets
Article Information
| PARAMETER | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|
| Reading time | 15 minutes (depending on experience and goals) |
| Target audience | Beginner bettors, arbitrageurs, players interested in Value Betting strategies |
| Difficulty level | Intermediate (requires basic understanding of odds and bookmaker terminology) |
| What you'll learn | What value bets are, how to find them, how they differ from surebets arbitrage, and whether it's worth using this strategy in practice |
Today we will talk about overpriced odds. They are also called "value bets" (from the English word "value" – worth, cost). Let's try to go beyond standard definitions and concepts (but we will also talk about them, of course). We will voice unpopular opinions and also ask the question: "Is it worth paying attention to value bets at all?" Or maybe we should question the very existence of overpriced odds? Let's figure it out.
What Are Value Bets?
And literally right away, literally from the first line, you have to think. It seems simple: these are overpriced odds. That is, if the probability of an event is estimated at 50%, then the odds should be 2.0 (taking into account the bookmaker's commission – approximately 1.95). But in practice, we see 2.25. Is this a value? Undoubtedly.
But how do you determine this probability? And is it even needed when searching for inflated odds? We will gradually, step by step, answer these questions. First, let's talk about methods for finding value bets.
Is an Incomplete Arb a Value Bet?
An arb is formed when one of the bookmakers stands out from the general range and significantly changes the odds for an event. If you think logically, if you choose the highest odds in a two-way arb, then that will be a value, because the number will be significantly higher than in other bookmakers.
Many arbitrageurs think that this is value, and that this is exactly how it should be searched for. In fact, this is just a variation of an incomplete arb. The method has a right to exist, but it has little relation to the topic under consideration. Therefore, in our opinion, it is wrong to classify such options as overpriced odds. And there aren't that many arbitrageurs who have a solid income from incomplete arbs.
Bookmaker Error
From the previous point, one can smoothly conclude that a high odds for an event at a bookmaker, clearly standing out from the general range of fellow bookmakers, is overpriced. But this, again, is not always the case. Let's provide proof by contradiction.
You don't need special software to see where the highest odds for an event currently are. You can even see it on FlashScore. And if you need more up-to-date information with fast updates, then on any odds scanner, for example, OddsPortal. And all this is absolutely free.
There is almost always a bookmaker that offers higher odds than others. Agree, if everything were so simple, you would simply be tripping over millionaires at every step. We conclude – this is also not our situation.
Where the Value Bet Hides
The answer lies in the definition itself. If the odds should be higher than the real probability of the event, then we need to determine this very probability and then it will become clear where the bookmaker made a mistake. That's how "simple" it is.
Don't rush to throw rotten fruit at the monitor, below we will also consider options for the practical use of value bets. In the meantime, let's focus on a detailed analysis of the event.
How do successful bettors (not arbitrageurs) make a profit? First, they conduct a pre-match analysis. For example, for football, this would be approximately the following list:
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current tournament position of the teams;
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current form of the teams (recent matches);
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history of head-to-head meetings;
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motivation (tournament task);
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injuries of significant players;
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psychological state (periods of failure, conflicts in the team);
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fatigue (schedule);
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where they play (home/away);
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weather forecast for match day (in rain, it is harder for technical teams).
Event Analysis
And this is only a superficial list. What happens next? Based on his analysis, the bettor makes a conclusion. For example, he concluded that the teams are equal in strength. This means that the most likely outcome is a draw. We place a bet.
But what does a SUCCESSFUL bettor do? He will not bet at just any odds. He will compare his analysis with the bookmaker's line. After all, even if a conclusion is made about the victory of team 1, betting with odds of 1.1 or 1.95 is not even a difference, it is a chasm.
Therefore, the conclusion about the probability of an event is formed before viewing the line (so that the information does not influence the analysis). For example, a forecast is made that the probability of team 1 winning is 50%, a draw is 40%, and team 2 winning is 10%.
To convert to the odds we are used to, we use a simple formula:
Where K is the odds, and P is the percentage.
In total, we get:
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W1 2.0
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X 2.5
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W2 10
Experienced readers have already noticed that these odds do not take into account the bookmaker's commission. But this is a topic on which there are heated debates to this day: where the margin is buried – on the favorite or on the underdog. So we will not go into details and will take the numbers as they are. In any case, such an analysis cannot be so accurate as to take into account a 5% commission.
Now we compare our odds with the bookmaker's line. And we look at which of these outcomes have figures higher than our assumptions.
But how to determine whether the odds for an event are overpriced and, if so, relative to what, what level of odds should be considered correct? After all, we are talking about an event that has not yet started, and all odds are nothing more than a preliminary, pre-match assessment by the bookmaker. Nothing more.
In fact, it is not difficult to find a benchmark odds with which one can accurately compare the odds for the same event offered by a particular bookmaker. All other bookmakers help with this. By taking the arithmetic average among all similar odds, it is easy to compare and check whether the odds is higher or lower.
Let's take 5 bookmakers as an example:
Bookmaker 1, Bookmaker 2, Bookmaker 3, Bookmaker 4, Bookmaker 5. They give the following odds for the same event: 2.02 / 1.95 / 2.10 / 2.00 / 1.90
Average Market Odds
(2.02+1.95+2.10+2.00+1.90)/5=1.994
1.99 will be the average market odds. At the same time, the real probability of the event does not depend in any way on this odds (just as any event does not depend on how someone evaluates it). Thus, it can be stated with a high probability that a bet on any odds that is higher than 1.99 will give the player an advantage over the bookmaker.
Is It Worth the Effort?
Your indignation is understandable. Finding value bets this way is not for everyone. To begin with, you will have to immerse yourself in some sport and study it thoroughly. Not even just the sport, but some specific championship. Regularly follow it, read the news, ideally watch the matches. At most, you can add 1-2 more championships after you gain experience.
And the saddest thing – such a search has nothing to do with arbitrage. There is no guaranteed profit here – everything depends on the accuracy of your analysis.
Wait, don't close the page. We promised to consider the practical application within the framework of arbitrage strategies, and we will talk about it next.
Practical Use in Arbitrage
We already talked about searching through arbs and that this is not entirely correct. But you can slightly improve the method. Let's describe it step by step.
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Find an arb.
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Look for the arb initiator (usually it is indicated in the scanner; you didn't search manually, did you?).
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The arb initiator must have raised the odds compared to the average line (they could have lowered it – such an initiator is not our client).
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The initiator must be a bookmaker not from the "first echelon". If a solid bookmaker (Pinnacle, for example) raises the odds, then this is not a value at all, but simply that Pinnacle knows something that you don't. And in the case of simpler bookmakers, which often simply copy others' lines, this is most likely an error and, accordingly, such a bet can be considered a value bet.
If you still don't know who the arb initiator is, then urgently read about it here.
Let's say right away – we haven't tested this strategy on a large scale. But in general, there should be quite a lot of such situations. The question still remains about their profitability.
There is an even simpler way to search for overpriced odds. More on that below.
How to Find Such Inflated Odds
More and more scanners offer value bet search. Moreover, this functionality often comes separately from the main subscription, and you need to pay extra for it. This suggests that the software creators have high hopes for this mode.
But how do they calculate it? Only their programmers know. The assumptions of some people that they simply look for the highest odds do not hold up to criticism: this would have been noticed long ago, and such information can be obtained for free.
There are not as many services providing analysis and comparison of odds as there are bookmaker arb scanners. It is good that the best arb scanners also allow you to work with this game method, bets on overpriced events.
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First of all, this is Surebet. A high-quality service that offers access to value bets with overpricing of up to 10% for free. This is a great offer for those who want to start betting.
Value Bets in Live Mode
As you have already noticed, even in pre-match, analysis is very difficult, and it will never be very accurate (moreover, often two solid experts can give directly opposite opinions). There is no question of any adequate assessment in live. Even if you see an obvious skew somewhere that contradicts what is happening in the match, then this is most likely a bookmaker error. All bets on this outcome will then be canceled.
Lifehack for Value Bets
If you have decided to bet on value bets, then one lifehack based on line movement will help you.
Most often, at the opening of the line, the odds on the favorite are overestimated, and on the underdog – underestimated. If, according to your estimate, the favorite will win, then you should wait for the day of the match. Then the odds on it will be maximum. Just don't wait until the time just before the start – about 3 hours before the match, a "line bounce" will occur. If you are betting on the underdog, then bet at the opening of the line.
We wrote in more detail about the life of the bookmaker's line in this article on our website.
Is This Arbitrage?
Arbitrage, in its classical understanding, is a situation with a guaranteed positive outcome for the bettor. If we take the most correct of the options we described (with pre-match analysis), then definitely not. There can be no guaranteed profit here. Because it is impossible to calculate mathematically. And only profit justified by mathematics can be considered guaranteed. In arbs, this guarantee exists. In value bets – no.
Let us repeat, an inflated odds in one of the bookmakers is not a guarantee of profit. And the analysis in other methods does not lend itself to any accurate numerical assessment.
Is It Profitable to Bet on Value Bets?
If we are talking about a full-fledged detailed pre-match analysis and subsequent comparison with the bookmaker's odds – yes, it is definitely worth it. It will require a lot of time, patience, and nerves. But if you want to connect your future with sports betting – this is yours. It will pay off many times over.