Polish Middles
Polish middles are not the most common method of bet gambling. However, they are depreciated.
To remove the most frequently asked question about the name of the method, we must mention first that “polish middle” origins from the post-war history, having nothing to the essence of the technique. Nevertheless, such term is very handy as it cannot me confused with anything else. So, remember this name. It’s recognized by all the scanners.
Going deep into calculations (given further), than you may notice this method of gambling has similarity with the “Lay” bet, i.e. “put”, which may be taken at exchanges or offered by some bookmakers. Let’s look at the example of a polish middle, which will help us get on with it.
There are two bets participating in the polish middle below: H1 (-0.75) and X2. Bets are set in different bookmakers, analogically to surebets and traditional middles. Though polish middles may emerge in the line of the one bookmaker, we recommend distributing bets.
The first bet is H1 (-0.75), coefficient is 2.25
Remember that H1(-0.75) is equivalent to H1(-0.5;-1) and is called Asian Handicap. It means that the amount of the bet is figuratively divided into two parts. The calculation goes the following way: if both conditions (H1(-0.5) and H1(-1)) work out, both parts are calculated by the given coefficient. If the only one part works out, then the first part (half bet) is calculated by the coefficient of the bet, while the second goes with the coefficient of 1.
Using Asian Handicaps is often more grounded than using of European traditional ones. For instance, in case of a game between a favorite and an absolute outsider, when favorite’s win is significantly more probable and expected difference in points may be reasonable.
The second bet is X2, coefficient is 2.25
X2 bet means Draw (X) or win of the second team (2). It’s quite simple about that.
Let’s consider any probable outcomes of this event and calculate net profit and ROIs for bet series on polish middles, analogical to the example.
For our convenience, we set $100 bet for each leverage (coefficients are equal, so bet amount for each leverage is so).
Let’s tabulate all probable outcomes to make them more illustrative:
| Outcome | Net Profit with $200 bet | NetProfittoBetAmount (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Team 1 wins with a gap of more than 1 point | $25 | 12,5% |
| Team 1 wins with a gap of exactly 1 point | $ -37,5 | -18,75 % |
| Draw | $25 | 12,5% |
| Team 2 wins with any score | $25 | 12,5% |
This method could be compared with incomplete surebets – there is some similarity. However, such comparison will not be correct. As working with polish middles on the run(it is their main distinction), there is the concrete number of bets calculated before. And emergence of a polish middle may be grounded only in case when a gambler gets net profits after setting all the bets in the series.
Finding such bets, which lead a gambler to the positive net profit is the main objective. Let’s calculate.
Bookmakers usually set the coefficient of 3.5 for H1(-1). It’s obvious that the coefficient may vary both ways, but this one is typical for the give example. Considering bookmaker’s interest, this coefficient may be taken as good and leading a gambler to the zero on the run, if it’s equal to 3.85 (by 10% higher than 3.5). So, if a gambler makes 100 bets for 3.85, then they will come to zero on the run. And H1(-1) is the only one market in our example, so win there leads the gambler to negative net profit (-18.75%). The probability of such an event is about 26%, according to the bookmaker.
It remains only to compare the probability of H1(-1)’s working out with the probability of polish middle’s working out. This is the main advantage of the latter, as the probability of working out of a polish middle is about 74%, according to bookmaker’s coefficients. For a series of 100 bets, it means that:
- 74 wins will give12.5% of net profit. Or, with total bet of $200 — $25*74=$1,850.
- 26 losses will give 18.75%. Or, with the same bet — $37.5*26=$975.
- Total net profit will be $1,850 — $975 = $875. Reassessing to the total investment amount (100 bets of $200 — $20,000), ROI = $875 / $20,000 = 0.04375 or 4.38%.
Main advantages of using polish middles, briefly:
- Large amount of polish middles emerging on pre-match markets.
- ROI is higher than for surebets.
- Possibility of operating with fewer bookmakers, as polish middles may emerge between any bookmakers, even those, which set quite low coefficients.
Where to Find Polish Middles?
By present time, we know the only one scanner finding polish middles separately (along with surebets and analysis of movement of coefficients). It is OddStorm. The premium scanner with a very powerful functionality, swift operation and friendly interface. However, it has some drawbacks, such as computer translation of some pages (though, quality of translation is sufficient for stable work) and not flexible pricing policy.
Nevertheless, these pitfalls do not affect efficiency. Scanner goes best in English, while pricing policy is the issue of calculations. And if you make 50€ every day with polish middles, why not to pay 7€ for the same period?
We didn’t make the separate rating for the only one scanner. OddStorm and its description may be found in our two main ratings: the rating of surebets and live-surebets.
Original article taken from the site www.smartgambling.ru