How to use the surebet initiator
Who is the surebet initiator? In short, this is a bookmaker that has dramatically changed the odds, thus creating a surebet situation. But what is the use of this knowledge for the arber? This will be discussed in today's article.
More about the arb initiator
Let's take a look at concrete examples of who is surebet initiator.
Let's say the Equator Penguins' winning line is at 1.9. But the bookmaker 4XBoom sharply raises the odds to 2.1. In this case, it becomes the initiator of the arb.
The second option is when one of the bookmakers simply does not have time to change the odds after the general pool. Therefore, despite the fact that she did nothing at all, such a bookie can give odds with a margin. Formally, this will not be the surebets initiator, but for practical purposes, this option is also suitable for us.
Most modern scanners provide information about who exactly became the initiator (we'll talk about practical use a little later). It is not always possible to determine exactly, and sometimes there are several initiators. But even in these cases, you can benefit.
You can find out which scanners provide information about the initiator in the review on our website.
A bit about arb terminology
A well-established “arbing glossary” does not exist. Therefore, different specialists often use different terms for the same phenomenon, or vice versa: they understand the same term differently. Sometimes forums develop whole holivars in an attempt to explain to each other why the opponent misunderstands this or that word. So, it will not be superfluous to decide in advance on the terminology of the article.
An important concept in the topic of surebet initiators is the donor. The donor is the bookmaker with which you expect to get the most profit in the situation that has arisen. In other words, it is a value bet. It would seem that everything is simple - there is an initiator of the arb, and the rest are donors. But it's not. Let's take a closer look, and then immediately move on to how to use all this theory in practice.
How to identify a surebet donor
Suppose the chances of winning the Equator Penguins team are estimated by bookmakers with a coefficient of 1.9 (plus/minus). And then suddenly in the Pinnacle it drops sharply to 1.6. What's this? Pinnacle strategic mistake? But we know that this is one of the best bookmakers in the world with an "impenetrable" line, the best analysts and cool insiders. So, most likely they have not gone crazy, but they know something that others do not know. Therefore, soon all bookmakers will change the odds to 1.6. So in this case, Pinnacle is the initiator of the fork, and all the rest are donors in relation to it.
Now let's look at the second example. The situation is the same (the coefficient for the victory of the Equator Penguins is 1.9), but now 4XBum sharply increases it to 2.1. Inside? Unlikely. 4XBum simply copies the line of other bookies, without bothering with its own analysis. This means that this is just a mistake of the bookmaker, and the rest will not rush after it to change the coefficients. On the contrary, 4XBoom will soon change it back as soon as it notices an error. 4XBoom in this example is the initiator of the surebet. But he is also a donor, because. set a value coefficient.
To better understand the “quality” of bookmakers, read our article about bookmakers.
How to use surebets donor
Let's move on to practice. In the vast majority of information sources, you will come across such advice - you need to quickly bet on the initiator of the surebet before the coefficient changes. And the second shoulder (as well as the third, fourth, etc.) should be put down later.
But if you have carefully read everything that has been written up to this point, then you already understand that this is an erroneous strategy. First of all, you need to bet on the donor! It is these ratios that change rapidly.
Why is betting speed so important? Bookmakers are on the alert, and surebets exist for a maximum of a minute, and often a second. You need to have time to place a value bet, and nothing will change with the rest of the leverage during this time: the odds will remain in the same place. The value ratio will disappear very quickly.
Let's sum up the intermediate results.
- If the initiator of the surbeets is a reputable bookmaker (for example, Pinnacle), then all other bookies will be donors to them. Therefore, we quickly put the leverage, which is located in another office, and only then in the initiator of the surebet.
- If the initiator is a secondary bookmaker that does not have its own analysis and sources of information, then you should immediately put it in the initiator, because. he is the donor. Then, slowly choose another bookmaker to bet on the second shoulder, because odds will not change and you can find something more profitable than the total mass.
In practice, a lot of experienced arbers don't understand this concept, losing their profits. But do not rush to run away to earn money - we still have a lot of interesting information.
Surebets initiator use cases
Many people use this concept to bet only on the donor, without betting on the second shoulder (or higher by number). In fact, this is a value bet (value bet). The term "incomplete surebet" can also be used here.
What are the advantages of such a method?
- Even if the bookmaker makes a return on the bet (due to an error in the line), then you will not lose anything.
- It is easier to place bets in one betting shop than in several.
- You are more difficult to identify as an arber.
- The potential gain is greater.
There is also a noticeable drawback - there is no guaranteed profit here, as when placing a full surebet. Hence the scatter of results: you can win back a month in the red, and in the next get super profits. This spread is called "dispersion".
So which option to choose? The choice comes down to the "eternal classic": surebets or values? You will receive profit both there and there, therefore, it is more a matter of personal preferences and conveniences. We outlined the advantages and disadvantages of each method.
Donor Betting Limits
Blind betting on a donor is not the best option. Be sure to pay attention to the "quality" of this donor. If this is a dubious bookmaker, and the surebet percentage is too high (for example, 10% of profit), then you should prefer to bet on only one leverage, even if you want to play it safe. It costs nothing for second-class bookmakers to cancel a bet without explaining the reason.
Non-obvious moments in bets on the surebet initiator
Let's consider a non-obvious situation when it is worth betting first of all not on the donor, but on the initiator of the surebet (if these are different bookmakers). The situation concerns only bets in the "live" mode.
Each arbs has a "true" event and a "false" one. The terms are conditional, rarely used, perhaps you call it differently. Let's take an example.
In a football match between Equator Penguins and Polar Pandas, the score is 2:0. There are 20 minutes left and it is quite obvious that the odds on the total under 3.5 are falling. This is natural: the result does not need to change for the event to occur. This is called a "true" event. The “false” event here will be TB 3.5, because 2 more goals are needed to achieve the result.
When you see an event in a Live surebet and there is no significant advantage in profitability for one of the outcomes, then always bet first on the leverage on which the event is “true”, because this is the coefficient that will decrease the fastest.
Summing up about surebet initiators
From all the information, we can conclude that the definition of the arbs initiator (and even more - the donor) is more useful for value bets. But arbers using this information will be able to find much more profitable situations.