Significance of the odds in surebets
Odds set for a particular event by betting companies are the first thing a bettor pays attention to when opening the selected event. The possible amount of winnings directly depends on the quote, so bettors carefully monitor possible changes and determine the margin level set in a particular bookmaker. A bookmaker with good odds always compares favorably with competitors, even without a number of those advantages that are valued by most surebettors, such as various promotions and bonuses.
As you know, low margin is the key to the popularity of the bookmaker among bettors. Ordinary bettors rarely pay attention to the size of a particular quote, being content with the set values and trusting the analytical department of the BM, or those who performed the calculations instead of them. Professionals, in turn, are able to roughly determine what the coefficient should actually be, and find out how high the margin was set by the bookmaker for their own selfish purposes. Choosing a sure bet odd requires you to be attentive to details, especially if the calculations are carried out manually, without the use of various scanners and calculators.
Taking for example the match of two equal basketball teams, the bettor understands that each of the opponents must be set at a coefficient of 2. However, none of the bookmakers will do this, since such quotes deprive them of their profit. Then the attraction of greed begins, which can be observed from the outside - how high the margin will be set by the bookmakers, trying to make money on the bettors: someone will set 1.95 for both teams, someone - 1.92, and someone in general 1.89 . A quick analysis of data from 5-6 bookmakers will allow you to immediately find out which companies you can cooperate with and which ones are better to stay away from. And if the situation repeats itself several times, when the same bookmaker sets the highest margin, lowering quotes as much as possible, then in the future there is no point in being interested in the odds offered here, immediately moving on to more preferable options.
Thus, a high margin allows you to weed out unnecessary bookmakers, determining for yourself which accounts are worth developing. Of course, betting companies do not always lower bets as much as possible, but the indicators at a distance level out all the differences, demonstrating exactly who it is more profitable to cooperate with.
Quick calculation of the desired value
An inflated coefficient in arbitration is of paramount importance. The whole strategy is based on this, which means that its search is necessary to obtain the desired profit.
Calculating the mathematical probability of future profit is quite simple, it is enough to divide 100 by the proposed coefficient. For example, one bookmaker has odds of 1.95 for an event with two outcomes. 100/1.95 = 51.3. 51.3 + 51.3 = 102.6. A value of more than a hundred is not suitable for a surebet, so it is impossible to build a strategy using only one bookmaker.
This example also works in reverse. If here 1.95 is set for one of the outcomes, which equals 51.3%, then for the very minimum profit from the surebet, it is necessary that the percentage of the outcome of the second event be no more than 99.9-51.3 = 48.6. 100/48.6 = 2.05. It is enough to find a coefficient of 2.05 or higher in other BM for the surebet to work successfully. Accordingly, the higher the coefficient, the greater the potential profit. In the future, having found the highest quote for the second outcome, you can additionally view offers to see if anyone offers odds below 1.95 for the first option, which will make the bet even more profitable.
The better the selected quotes, the higher the final profit from the surebet, and this is exactly what a professionals is striving for - a high income with no risks. All these calculations can be carried out by specialized programs. There are resources that specialize in comparing the odds of different betting companies, and arb scanners will offer ready-made arbitrage situations, but they also have disadvantages for bettors:
- Platforms analyze quotes in dozens of bookmakers, and there is no guarantee that the bettor already has an account in the selected companies. It is necessary either to create personal accounts with each bookmaker reflected in a particular scanner, or skip most of the proposed events.
- Scanners quickly provide the necessary information, but the bettor's response time is much longer. While all bets are made, quotes may change, and the whole process will have to start over. There are resources in which betting takes place almost in one click, but, firstly, you will again need a ready-made account, and secondly, the use of such programs implies regular payment. Not all betters are willing to pay third-party programs, no matter how good they are, for what they can do on their own.
- Even the best program can make mistakes. For example, situations where the game takes place on a neutral field and it is not clear who is the nominal owner. It is enough for one bookmaker to change the positions of the teams in the line so that the whole strategy is immediately violated. If you study quotes yourself, then such a problem can be avoided.
Almost all professionals use one or more arb scanners that select the odds for a arb, but they often rely on their own observations, which allows them to get a complete picture.
Difference in odds for the same events
Betting companies, no worse than bettors, understand the peculiarities of building quote lines and what bettors can earn from it. Surebettors know how bookmakers track down arbitrageurs, what they pay attention to and how to avoid this very attention. However, even such knowledge is not able to force companies to build quotes properly. Several factors influence this:
- The method of obtaining odds by the company itself. Large bookmers have their own staff of analysts, recruited either from third-party specialists or from their own pupils, who view the available lines, paint quotes and track any changes. Companies that cannot afford to keep an army of workers on their payroll buy quotes from third-party organizations that specialize in sports analysis. There are also book,akers that simply steal the paintings of competitors and change the values a little so that no one guesses. In any case, quotes always turn out to be different from each other.
- Any odds comparison scanner will easily find differences in each game event, both in pre-match and live. This is also due to the fact that the depth of analysis and consideration of all factors are different for all analysts. Is it necessary to take into account that one of the players of the team was limping at the last training session? What about the fact that the weather center predicts possible rain on the day of the game? All events, which individually seem insignificant, are collected into a single picture, which is reflected in the presented odds.
- Another factor influencing the change in quotes is a large rate. If a bookmaker has someone bet 2 million on the victory of the first team, he will not leave it unattended. The line urgently needs to be leveled so as not to face losses, so the coefficient for the first team will immediately drop, and on the second, on the contrary, it will grow in order to attract additional injections from the surebettors to the other side. Changed quotes along the chain may also affect other bookmakers, but the difference in indicators will still immediately become noticeable.
- Do not forget that one of the coefficients can be specially overestimated by the bookmaker to determine arbitrageurs. For obvious reasons, such a bet will not be calculated, and it will not affect the bettor's reputation for the better.
The search for a coefficient for arbitration allows you to systematically review the available quotes and find suitable values. The closer the start of the match, the more often changes occur in the painting, and during the game it is even more difficult to catch suitable numbers. At the same time, jumps in odds in live can bring serious profit from the surebet, if you notice it in time.
What to look for when choosing a cofficient
Knowing how to determine the minimum margin level and quickly calculate the surebet, bettors often forget about other important aspects, without which you can forget about building a successful strategy:
- Proper placement of the shoulders of the surebet. Betting arbitration requires clarity and order. Having found a suitable event, it is important to use the appropriate calculator that calculates the required amounts for the bet, or do it yourself. There are several formulas for calculating leverage. You can start from the total amount of the bank, dividing it into two unequal parts, or you can put one amount on the first outcome, and calculate the second from it. In the first case, the formula is as follows: 1/event odds/amount resulting from the surebet calculation*total pot. This formula should be used twice, alternately substituting quotes for the first and second outcomes in place of the odds. In the second case, the formula looks like this: the amount bet on the first event * the coefficient of the first event / the odds of the second event.
- Features of the selected bookmaker. If a bettor sees a tempting odd in an unknown bookmaker, you should place bets safe and skip this option. Fraudsters are still present on the market, so there is a risk of saying goodbye to money forever. It is better to spend more time searching, but not to doubt the honesty of the company.
- Also, do not forget about the rules of these very companies and do not abuse their patience. Betters know which bookmakers do not pay attention to affiliates for a long time, and which ones will impose sanctions in a few days. It is important to have time to withdraw the funds available on the account and not to pull to the last. Otherwise, there will be not only cut limits, but also withdrawal restrictions.
Focusing on the data provided by the scanner, as well as on their own observations, a professional bettor is able to build a competent strategy on a long-term basis, successfully making money on surebets. It is enough not to forget about the simple rules and continue to carefully monitor all the coefficients, because it depends on them how profitable arbitrage will be.