Surebets and freelancing

It is obvious that most arbitrageurs perceive their activities simply as a part-time job. Many are afraid of uncertainty, some are afraid of the need for investments, and others are afraid of the instability of earnings. That’s why we decided to write what can be called “instructions for making money on sure bets as a freelancer.”

ROI and cash flow

“I made 100 bucks a day on arbs!”, “I learned how to arb, I earn 10k dollars and went to Switzerland!”... you can find a lot of such headlines, especially among information businessmen selling arbitrage courses. And the problem here is not even that they “exaggerate”, but that these numbers are not tied to anything: what they put, how much they put, where they put it is unclear.

An arber’s income depends on dozens of factors, and today we will analyze the main ones. Therefore, to say that everyone will be able to earn a hundred US dollars a day is impossible just like that, without reference to these very factors.

Let's start with an analysis of terminology.

ROI – return on investment. Literally, return on investment (read: payback) is measured as a percentage. For example, you invested 100, received 110. Your ROI for this transaction is 10%.

The ROI of one surebet will be in the range of 2-4%. Already here we are going against a lot of advertising that promises you 15-20%, but our goal is to give you real information. Therefore, we confirm: sure bets with 15-20% profitability exist, but you will rarely see them.

From this it already becomes clear that catching some kind of miracle arb and getting rich will not work. This is work “for a distance”, and not for instant “jackpots”. And this brings us to the second concept - turnover.

Turnover is the amount of your bets. For example, you bet $100 on each surebet. You place 100 sure bets per month (a conditional figure that does not reflect the real situation). Your total monthly turnover is $10,000. Income also greatly depends on this indicator, since the more bets, the more you earn.

The ROI of a single surebet is not particularly important to us - it is almost always within certain limits. It is also wrong to count a percentage of turnover, because this is only the sum of the bets, and you will need more money (with a margin). Therefore, they usually calculate the percentage of income in relation to the bank (most often per month).

And now we come to your first investment in future earnings - this is your bank.

Surebets bank

The biggest initial investment you need to make is a surebets bank. This is the money you will bet with at bookmakers. It is not necessary to keep them all in bookmaker accounts. But you need to always have them on hand so that if something happens you can make a deposit instantly. How much should you keep in the bank? The answer is not so easy, but we will try.

What does it take to make more money on sure bets? This is to place more bets. To place more bets, you need to find more arbs. To find more sure bets, you need accounts with as many bookmakers as possible. If you only have two, then there will be very few of them. The more you add, the more sure bets the software will find for you (more on that later). And with each added office, the number of arbitration situations will grow exponentially.

Those. The more accounts you have in offices (different), the better. Of course, at some stage it will simply become physically impossible to administer a huge number of bookmakers. Therefore, you will have to maintain some kind of balance that is acceptable to you. But even at the initial stage, we recommend opening accounts in at least five offices, and at the first opportunity expanding to at least 10.

Let's move on. On average, on weekends during the season you can earn 4-5% of the bank if you are willing to work 8-12 hours a day. The work mainly consists of waiting for signals from the scanner, so such numbers are quite realistic. On a weekday “fishless” day it may be 0.5%. Outside the season of major championships (summer, for example), profits decrease significantly. In total, we can derive an approximate figure of 1-1.5% of the bank per day.

Again, this is not a guaranteed figure. It is influenced by many factors, one of which we have already discussed is the number of bookmakers. But there are many more, which we will discuss below.

We conclude that the average arber can “raise” about 40% of the bank in a month.

And now you can calculate for yourself what kind of bank you should have in order to earn enough to live on. After all, this amount is different for everyone. Someone lives far from large cities and $300 is enough for them to live a normal life. Someone lives in a millionaire, and may consider the amount of 1000 dollars insufficient.

Let's give a couple of examples. If $400 profit per month is enough for you, then your bank should be about $1000 in size. If you want to earn $1,000 or more, then the bank must be at least $2,500.

Unfortunately, these are not final numbers yet. We will summarize the calculations at the end. This is just an example of how things work.

These are basic numbers that you can build on, but it’s worth knowing about the nuances.

By endlessly increasing the bank, you will not increase your earnings to unimaginable heights. All bookmakers have a bet cap. You simply cannot bet more than this amount. Also take into account the fact that for a long winning game these limits will be “cut” for you, reducing the “ceiling” even lower. To put it simply, the size of the bank matters as long as it is small or medium, but at large numbers it no longer makes sense to increase it. It's unlikely you'll make much more money on a $200,000 pot than you can on a $100,000 pot.

It is also worth paying attention to the fact that it is not recommended to bet all the money in your account. Firstly, you “freeze” the account until the match is over and may miss a profitable surebet. Secondly, this leverage may not work, and you will also be left without money if a profitable bet comes across. Therefore, you should not bet on one leverage more than 50% of the money in the account at this office. Or better yet, 30%.

This makes calculating the required bank more difficult, but we didn't promise it would be easy. As soon as you have a little experience, you yourself will be able to accurately determine how much you should keep in a bookmaker.

Let's move on to further expenses.

Surebets software

Nowadays you can find “gurus” who offer training in manually searching for arbitrage bets. This approach is based on the fact that it is safer. But you can’t earn adequate money this way.

Not a single player who makes money with arbs does this without a scanner. The scanner itself searches for sure bets for you, analyzing dozens of bookmakers. Therefore, spending on it is inevitable. How much will you have to pay? There are both free options and “all inclusive” options for more than $1,000 per month.

Free scanners and trial subscriptions are good only to familiarize yourself with the topic. The most expensive subscriptions are also not always wise to buy: they include a bunch of functionality you don’t need, such as values or personal settings with support.

You will choose a scanner according to your preferences. Be sure to take a look at our rating before choosing - there are detailed reviews of most popular scanners there.

But we still need to decide on a certain price, since we have begun to sort out all the investments. For example, let's take the Live&Prematch tariff from the most popular and functional BreakingBet scanner. Its cost is $59,99 per month. We will start from this price.

But a scanner is not all that the digital world has to offer for process automation. Substituting odds into calculators, following a link to your bookmaker account, and even auto-filling coupons. Some scanners have this functionality, some do not (again, we remind you of our reviews and ratings). Sometimes it is implemented separately (for example, by an application or browser plugin). But let’s say right away – it’s difficult to do without it. The absence of such software will greatly reduce your earnings. For example, in the BreakingBet, all this functionality is available and is already included in the payment. Separately, we need to mention bots. This is the software that not only fills out everything itself (based on scanner searches), but also places bets itself according to the specified settings. Let’s say right away that this is not some kind of sinecure. You will have to tinker with tests, the correct settings and then constantly monitor it. But this greatly simplifies the process itself.

Of course, a bot is prohibited software and its use increases the risk of account blocking. Therefore, you use it at your own risk. Correct settings greatly reduce such risks. Developers usually help set it all up and running.

For obvious reasons, we will not name the developers and explain where to get the bot. Let's just say that the average monthly subscription price will be from 50 to 100 dollars.

It turns out that the approximate investment in software can be estimated at $200 monthly.

Surebets accounts

Unfortunately, the bookmakers won’t watch you smiling as you constantly come out in the black. What measures are possible here?

  1. Account verification request.
  2. Cutting limits.
  3. Blocking with the ability to withdraw money.
  4. Blocking with confiscation of all funds.

In the first case, they can request anything, depending on the adequacy of the bookmaker. Right down to a photo with a passport against the background of a mobile operator’s office with your data. In other cases, fighting is almost pointless.

How to escape? Multi-account. As soon as there is a problem with an account, you simply move on to the next one. They, of course, need to be kept in reserve, and not searched for in an emergency. Plus there should be the possibility of verification (to bypass the problem of point 1 if necessary).

Of course, at first you can “take advantage” of relatives and friends. But not all of them will agree, and these accounts won’t last long. There is only one way out - buy.

Experienced arbers buy them themselves, in huge quantities - it’s cheaper. Their advertisements can be found on specialized forums and social networks. But for a beginner this is not the best option (besides, it requires knowledge of advertising and time). There is enough to profit from the inexperience of those who want to, therefore, until you yourself begin to figure out where the account is good, where it is bad, and where they openly want to deceive you, it is better not to buy.

At the first stages, you can buy accounts in specialized services and on the same forums. Their prices vary greatly depending on the bookmaker, region and account reliability. The lifespan of accounts is also difficult to predict. For example, on Pinnacle or Betfair they are almost eternal. It will “live” on SBOBET for a month. On Bet365 – a maximum of a week. Of course, these terms are average and approximate.

But let’s try to calculate the investment, at least an approximate figure. Let's assume you take accounts for 10 bookmakers, as we recommended. Even for this amount you need at least 20 accounts per month (in some places they will last for years, in others you will change them every week). The average price of an already verified account is now around $20 for bookmakers Let's take the average of $15. If you spend a little time without taking advantage of the first offer, you can find cheaper ones. Total $300 minimum investment for this expense item.

Don't treat accounts with disdain. They are very important because they will “fall off” relatively often. If you want to save money at the start, you will lose a couple of bookies in a few days, greatly reducing your earnings.

Proxy for arbs

The smallest expense item, and we won’t write much about it. It is advisable that you log into each bookmaker under a separate IP. The fact is that many companies have the same owner, and sometimes they exchange information. Betting on opposite outcomes in different bookmakers will lead to your immediate exposure.

For 10 good proxies you will have to pay about $20 per month.

Arbitrage betting test

Until you choose the optimal combinations, the right bookmakers, profitable sports, and understand the quality of your accounts, you will have to lose a certain amount of money. Of course, many things are obvious. For example, do not bet on curling, the Zimbabwe U19 Championship, and do not use openly fraudulent companies, whose “names” have long been known.

But you will have to “train your hand” for some time, look for your ligaments. There are also nuances and “fine tuning” that even the “gurus” won’t tell you about during training. Therefore, take it for granted that you will simply spend the profit for the first month on tests. As a result, you will gain experience and then start earning money.

Commissions in arbs

The commissions of payment systems, banks, and bookmakers are different everywhere. You need to check them with the person whose services you use. In general, you should spend no more than 10% of the money withdrawn on commissions and conversions. If it comes out more, look for alternative withdrawal routes.

But the biggest commission does not lie in payment systems. It will have to be paid to the “drops”. Drops are people who will receive your money via their payment details. You won’t be able to summon the same card when playing on new accounts. The market for such services is quite extensive.

Of course, you need to look for services or individuals with a reputation. Or those whom you can control yourself. For example, these could be residents of your city, whom you yourself can come to and ask to undergo verification. But you still need to pay for it. Well, for foreign companies you will still have to look for drops somewhere on services or forums. European drops now charge around 15% commission.

Unforeseen losses in arbitration

There are several types of possible money losses that you will sooner or later be forced to face.

  • Account blocking without the ability to withdraw money or inability to pass verification. This can happen either due to problems with the account (for example, re-registration) or due to the reluctance of the bookmaker to give away money.
  • Inability to place bet on the second "arm" to the required ratio. For example, the bookmaker “freezes” for a long time when accepting bets. In this case, you need to either leave one leverage (for example, they stopped accepting bets on the second) or place a deliberately negative surebet.
  • Errors when placing "arms". For example, in baseball, matches are often confused because... there may be several of them per day for the same commands. Or take Israel, where in the football league there are five Maccabi and six teams called Hapoel. Of course, this can be avoided by automating processes.
  • Human factor. The drop may simply deceive you and disappear. Or refuse to undergo verification. It may not even be his fault: situations in life are different.

On average, such losses should not exceed 10% of profit.

The final count of sure bets in freelancing

Please note that when we talked about losses due to commissions and due to unforeseen circumstances, we were not talking about cutting your profits by percentage points. Losses will only apply to profits (you only withdraw profits, since you need to save the bank).

Let's use numbers as an example. We gave an average income estimate of 40% of the bank per month. Our losses are: 10% conversion, 15% drops, 10% for all sorts of troubles. Total 35%. If you subtract 35% from 40 (our planned income), you will be left with 65% = 26. Let’s round up to 25. In total, your profit will remain at least 25% per month of the bank’s value. But do not forget that all losses are taken with a margin, so most likely there will be more.

Let's sum up the mandatory expenses. This:

  • $200 for software;
  • $300 for accounts;
  • $20 proxies.

Total 520 dollars.

Now let's find out what pot size you will need to work exclusively on sure bets.

For CIS countries, $1,000 will be a sufficient amount to leave a paid job (for the outback, much less). It turns out that we need a monthly profit of 1,520 USD (1,000 for ourselves and 520 expenses). Let's round up to 1500, it's not a big difference. Since the profit is planned at 25% net, you will need a bank of $6,000.

Let's assume that you will be satisfied with earning 500 USD. Then a bank of about 4,000 will be enough for you.

If you live in Europe or North America, then 1,000 will be very little for you to live on. You need to set the bar to at least 3,000, so the bank amount for these territories is needed about 14,000.

If you need other amounts, then using our method you can easily calculate them. But there is a minimum required amount that must cover mandatory expenses. This is 520 dollars. To earn it, you need a bank of about 2,000.

We remind you that this is a pessimistic forecast. We took expenses and losses close to the maximum values, income – to the minimum. In addition, quite a few assumptions were made. For example, at the very start you do not have to have 10 bookmakers at once, so the costs of accounts can be greatly reduced, which will reduce the requirements for the bank.

Is the game worth the candle?

These may not be the numbers you were expecting. Advertising “invest 10,000, earn 100,000” always does its vile thing, even if people understand that there is a catch.

In addition, making money on sure bets is not “the beach with a laptop.” This is a routine, sometimes monotonous, and it is not suitable for everyone.

However, 25% per month is an excess profitability, difficult to achieve even in super-successful businesses. Think about it - this is 300% per annum, and we have not yet calculated compound interest.

Therefore, we can safely conclude that making money on sure bets is a more than worthy occupation if you want to work for yourself and not be tied to one place.

Paths of development in surebets

Probably, some readers have already figured out that here you can quickly reach the “ceiling” due to the limitation in the size of bets and the limit of physical capabilities.

Well, firstly, the ceiling here is not small: 10,000 USD profit per month is not uncommon (although not the standard, of course). In a business with such profitability, you will need to invest much more than the 50,000 that is needed here (including overhead costs).

Secondly, no one is stopping you from developing. You can not only deal with arbitrage bets yourself, but also organize a business. Hire people who will do routine work for you. Most likely, they will need to be trained, but this is an acceptable cost.

Also, do not forget that despite the fact that bookmakers are fighting arbitrageurs, this activity is within the law. You can officially register an individual entrepreneur or a small company and pay taxes. There are such cases: pay attention to people who buy hundreds of accounts on forums.

It remains to summarize: there are no limits. The topic is specific, but it is precisely on such topics that one can earn more than on the hackneyed “trade with China.” Who knows, maybe you will become the next arbitrage genius? It's worth a try.