What is an overpriced bet?

An overpriced bet (value bet, value betting, valuebet) is a betting strategy based on events that the bookmaker has undervalued. Since the bookmaker has undervalued them, the bookmaker has set odds higher than their probability warrants. By betting on overpriced odds, a player gains an edge over the bookmaker in the long run, even after taking losses into account.

How can you find overpriced odds?

1. Independently. This is especially relevant for players who have a good understanding of what they are betting on, keep their finger on the pulse, and know what is happening with their favorite team almost better than the coach. After carefully analyzing the lines and odds offered by bookmakers, such a professional can find an inflated odd. After all, bookmaker analysts also sometimes make mistakes and fall prey to stereotypes.
2. With the help of services that scan for bets with an edge. Their advantage is that they process data from a large number of bookmakers. First, the average odd is displayed as the arithmetic mean of all the offered odds, and then this value is compared with each odd from the bookmaker. The value that is your average is the sought-after overpriced bet.
3. Look carefully at surebets. One of the arbitrage legs of a surebet is definitely a value bet. It is precisely the presence of overpricing that causes a surebet to arise.