When avoid an arb, even if it seems perfect

Arbs are one of the safest ways to earn money through betting, but even here, hidden risks exist. Seasoned arbers know: not every arb, even with high returns, is worth pursuing. Sometimes walking away from a tempting opportunity saves your bankroll and accounts.

In this article, we’ll explore:

• Why a “perfect” arb can be a trap.

• 5 key situations when skipping an arbitrage bet is smarter.

• How to analyze risks before placing a bet.

• Real-life cases of losses due to non-obvious mistakes.

Red flags of “risky” arbs

❗ Suspiciously high profit (over 10-15%)

The higher the arb’s return, the greater the risk of:

• Line errors (bookmaker cancels the bet).

• Odds update delays (you’ll only manage to place one side of the bet).

• Match-fixing (bookmaker voids all bets).

➡️ Example: A 20% profit arb on a Belarusian third-league match – almost guaranteed to be canceled.

❗ Unpopular sports and leagues

• No data available for analysis (e.g., Botswana Youth Championship).
• High risk of fraud (match-fixing, fake broadcasts).
• Slow payouts from small bookmakers.

What to do? Restrict scanner filters to the top 5 sports.

❗ Bookmakers with poor reputations

Some operators are known for:

• Frequent bet cancellations.

• Account blocks on suspicion of arbitrage.

• Delayed payouts.

When to avoid arbitrage bets?

One of the bets is placed with a illegal bookmaker bookmaker.

If the arbitrage involves unlicensed bookmakers:

• Funds may not be returned if the bet is canceled.

• Accounts get blocked without explanation.

Case: A bettor placed a $1,000 arbitrage bet on Pinnacle and an illegal bookmaker. The latter vanished with the money.

Odds change before bet confirmation.

In live arbitrage, even a 5-second delay is critical.

How to check?

• Use low-ping scanners (e.g., BreakingBet, Forking).

• Avoid bets if one line has already dropped.

The match is about to start (<5 minutes)

• The bookmaker may delay the payout of winnings.
• High risk of technical voiding (annulment).

Rule: Avoid placing arbs (betting forks) 5 minutes before the event starts.

One of the bets falls into a "prohibited" category.

Some bookmakers block arbitrage on:

• Political events (elections, referendums).
• Esports (frequent result revisions).
• Non-sporting bets (e.g., "Who will die in Game of Thrones").

The arb requires 3+ bets.

Multi-arb (3+ outcomes) are risky:

• Hard to place all bets in time.

• One voided bet = losses on remaining positions.

Alternative: Stick to classic 2-outcome arbs.

How to make a quick decision on placing a bet?