Life stages of the betting lines
An attentive betting player must have noticed that you can bet on a sporting event at different times. An offer with odds for a game in bookmakers can appear several days, and sometimes even weeks or months before the event itself. It does not end with the start of the match. From the pre-match format, the bookmakers line migrates to live mode, where it exists almost until the end of the match. At all these stages, quotes are heterogeneous, they change. The life of the betting line can be divided into stages. This is what we will do in this review. We characterize the features of each segment, describe the reasons for the changes in the coefficients. We will also give recommendations on how to use the factor movement factors at different time intervals to your advantage. For an in-depth analysis of the movement of lines, it is useful to use the services of line scanners.
What do the coefficients depend on
Before analyzing the features of the division of life of the betting line, you should decide on a more global terminology. What is a betting odds and what does it depend on. Understanding these points, the reasons for the movement of quotes become obvious. And this is the main difference between different segments of the line of the bookmaker.
Factors of coefficients formation we have considered in detail in a separate article, so here we will briefly go through the main theses. A ratio is a speculative measure, similar to a market or exchange price. The size of the coefficient is influenced by:
- Estimated probability of outcome;
- Margin, Commission of the bookmaker;
- Speculation of bookie;
- Value bets from the players.
The analytical Department generates the probability ratio on opposite shoulders for one type of event. From the percentage of probability is subtracted a certain margin on which the bookmaker makes his main profit. The resulting percentage is then converted to a decimal coefficient, which falls into the line.
For example, the probability of outcome is estimated at 60%. Margin 4%. So 2% on each shoulder. Total, 58%.
100% / 58% = 1.72
This is the decimal coefficient that we are used to seeing in most domestic and many large bookmaker. Of course the margin may be different, and share between the shoulders, it may well not equally. However, this jungle, in which we now do not climb.
In this ideal case, there are only two factors-probability and margin. However, a third may intervene. If the match is popular, and the bookmaker wants to attract more money to this stake, then he can artificially distort the ratio of the coefficients. This is how the opinion of the crowd is manipulated, because at least 80% of the players are guided solely by the coefficients. Finally, the fourth factor – "Progres". If the first three parameters laid out in quotes from the beginning of life line, "Progres" connected on the go. As long as the money goes to the opposite outcomes in a ratio inversely proportional to the coefficients, the balance is maintained.
For example, quotes on opposite shoulders of the outcome: 1.70 to 2.30. If the first event is accepted 230 000, and the second 170 000, or the amount in the same ratio, the coefficients will remain static. When one arm comes substantially larger proportion is not met, the bookies automatically move quotes. Where more loaded – there is a figure, much less growing. Thus, by increasing the benefits on the rising shoulder, they try to attract more players ' money there. However, the main scope to reduce progruzheno shoulder. Due to this, it will be necessary to pay less to the winners if this event comes true. It is clear that in one match can be easily achieved imbalance, one shoulder will take ten times more money than the other. And Yes, this happens regularly, in one game the office can suffer losses. However, serving hundreds of thousands of events at a distance, through such progresiv, the office goes to good plus. The thing is that some of the events will lose, and the number of wins will be less, relative to the coefficient, because it was loaded. Can make a very important note: do not put on a conservative coefficients, where puts many players. It's better to pass these games.
In different periods life lines can change all four quoted factors. Can receive new information about the squads, injuries, scandals and other news that can affect the odds ratio. Having received such information, the office adjusts the coefficients. Probability is constantly changing in live with the passage of time and account changes. So the volatility from this factor increases after the start of the match.
At different stages and the margin is different. In the pre-match line it is one, in live-another, usually much higher. But in the pre-match period, the margin is not always uniform. Many bookmakers are practicing uneven margin that affects the quotes.
Speculation of course 90-95% laid in the earliest version of the line. Sharp jumps of quotations after already connected rather with programi. In fact, from Progresa happens most of the changes of coefficients at different stages.
With the reasons for changes in betting quotes figured out, go to the timeline of the life of the bookmakers line.
We will divide the life of the betting line into 5 stages. Some divide by more, some by less. Just catch the trends, don't bother too much.
Usually distinguish the following types:
Let's go from the origin of the line to its final closure.
So, until some time in the bookmaker there is no proposal for a League and a match, and then it appears. This is the birth of the starting line.
Distinctive features of the line at this stage are:
- small number of bets;
- relatively high margins;
- the lack of value bets.
The starting line offers only quotes on:
- major outcomes 1-Х-2;
- double chance;
- basic handicap;
- the main total
For example, in the case of football, the following sentences are given:
1-X-2, 1X-12-Х2, handicap (-1) - handicap (+1), Total Over (2.5) - Total Under(2.5)
The values of handicap and total can be different, this is just an example.
Since most of the other offers in the later versions of the line to some extent depend on the main quotes, it is important for bookmakers to roll out such a preliminary version in order to adjust it later.
Coefficients in the starting line are placed by the program, the machine, on the basis of the put mathematical model. Of course, the model itself is created by people. The basis for determining the probability ratio are statistical indicators. The influence of other factors at this stage is not so great, because there is still a lot of time before the match and not everything is still known, in particular, such an important thing as lineups.
This situation is used by professional betters. The basis of their analytics is not statistics, but closer and more powerful factors:
- game form;
- the preliminary composition;
- calendar of games;
- play style.
Statistics are also considered, but only as an additional factor. After getting their idea of the probabilities of the main outcomes, professionals compare them with betting quotes. If some market has a significant advantage of 10% or more, then such a rate is flirted with at this early stage, without waiting for the release of a detailed line.
Of course, so formed the first value bets. Pros put quite a considerable sum. Bookmakers use this information and can further adjust the line more than the actual rates. Thus, seemingly antagonists, analysts on different sides of the barricades, working on the formation of the final structure of the line. Just the first act in their own interests, trying to grab the boulder coefficient, and the second – in interests of their employer, the bookmaker.
Bookmakers trust early value bets because they know that the vast majority of bets at such an early stage of the life of the line is made by professionals. The influx of fans begins much later, closer to the start of the game.
The relatively high margin in this segment is designed to slightly undercut the profit of professionals. However, it is still profitable to bet here, since the margin is higher by 0.5-2%, rarely more, and the advantage over the initial assessment of the event can be in the tens of percent.
To learn about the output of the starting line, professional players order special bots that parse bookmakers line and send alerts. Who before managed, then has the opportunity put on the most profitable ratios. This issue is particularly acute in all minor leagues, small markets, where the volatility of quotations is very high even with relatively small amounts of bets taken. In popular markets, indicators are moving more slowly, but there are also distortions are rare, because these events are under the closest attention of analysts of the bookie. At events with low popularity and modest limits, and the margin is the highest-all against professionals.
The next stage of development is the early line. She, again, takes into account the initial value bets from professionals. So that in the main libe to capture some preponderance already it is difficult. At this stage, there is a more detailed line, dozens or hundreds of minor proposals for bets: a detailed grid of totals and handicaps, individual totals, bets on goals, combined outcomes, the layout of the halves.
At this stage, still dominated the action from the professional players. Only a small percentage of fans already comes and starts to put, but their weight is minuscule.
This segment of the life of the line is valuable for professionals because there are many additional markets. Let's assume that none of the outcomes in the early version were satisfactory. Want take simply goal team, individual total more 1, and can be zero handicap, some the other handicap, either total, which there is no in the main parts of line.
In addition, at this stage, the margin may already be slightly lower than in the starting line.
Naturally, under the pressure of funds that are put down by professionals already on the auxiliary outcomes, there is a further shift in the coefficients. There are fewer and fewer profitable options.
For 1-2 days until the early match to lines are beginning keep an eye on lovers, the main mass players. At this stage, the line becomes as wide as possible, various small markets, bets on statistics, corners, yellow cards and the like are added to the previously opened offers. Also at this stage, the margin decreases. Bookmakers compete with each other to attract the largest number of players, and therefore cash flow.
As we found out, in the early stages of the life of the line, professionals have already played most of the most profitable bets. Based on the load from them, the analytical departments of bookies adjusted the ratio of the coefficients.
The opinion of the crowd is controlled by the ratio of quotations. Many players follow the advice of different cappers, sports experts. It is no secret that the lion's share of these subjects directly sits on contracts with bookmakers. It is easy to guess that the" hand feeding " their predictions they will not bite. So if you carefully check their statistics on a long segment - it always goes into the minus.
Anyway, at this stage in the office receives significantly more money than before. Let the majority of fans and puts a little, but their number is orders of magnitude higher. If the vector of opinion of the crowd is motivated by something, then there is a serious imbalance in the incoming amounts on different shoulders of the event. To put at this stage co-directionally with the opinion of the majority is extremely unprofitable.
On the other hand, a professional betterer may consider betting on an underdog, or some other outcome, against the potential opinion of most players. In this case, there is no point in rushing with early bets. On the contrary, it is more profitable to wait until the indicators shift and the quotes on the selected side jump, since the reverse shoulder will be loaded by another players. Of course this level of understanding, forecasting the psychology of the betting rules comes with experience.
At the intermediate line stage, new information about compositions and other factors may appear, which will adjust the forecast. In this time basic rates professionals already have made. So if nothing seriously changes, then no action on their part at this stage and should not. If the news threatens to set early bets, betters can insure their initial bets, exit the market by making a surebet in another bookmaker.
The final line
The final appearance of the pre-match line becomes an hour before the match, when the teams are already known. In this period the margin is minimal, the flow of money from fans increases. Professionals in this period are also mostly silent, only insure some of their early bets, if something began to embarrass.
When the game starts, the pre-match line disappears from the bookmaker's website, but a proposal appears in the live section. Initially, quotes here are little different from the final version. Only margin is set slightly higher.
Over time and changes in the account indicators begin to change. This is a special stage, in many respects similar in value to the starting and early versions of the line. The fact is that completely new factors are beginning to appear. The game is on, an attentive sports analyst is catching new information, trends. Since the line is moved by the computer, the value of the quotes largely depends on the time elapsed from the start, on account changes, on loading. As a result, distortions appear, and even worse than those that can be observed in the early stages of the life of the line.
It is not surprising that in this segment the limits on the amount of bets are noticeably lower, and the margin is significantly higher than at any time before the meeting. These measures are designed to reduce the potential profits of professional betters. However, catching a program that moves quotes on errors does not cease to be profitable. There is a whole pool, a special caste of professional "divers" who earn at this particular stage of the line's life.
A few minutes before the end of the match, the live line closes and is no longer available. Thus ends the life cycle of the bookmaker's line.
We think that this review has given you a fair amount of food for thought. A lot of small and global conclusions can be made. To summarize some key points.
Firstly, the early stages of the life of the line are valuable in that you can find the odds, mistakes of bookmakers. However, to do this, it is not enough to operate with statistics from the Myscore, which is what many amateurs sin. It is necessary to work with more significant factors, to find the contradictions of short and long trends.
Secondly, bets on the loaded odds, according to forecasts with which the crowd agrees, the mainstream is a loss-making practice over the distance.
Thirdly, in the later stages of the life of the line and in live, you can insure yourself if circumstances have changed. A lot of betters underestimate this option.
And fourthly, live, in itself, is a very powerful stage, where as well as in the early days of the life of the line you can catch profitable bets.