What is the odds of a bookmaker?
The basic concept that a new player in sports betting will encounter sounds like a "odd". Today we decided to give a detailed explanation of it, so that you can easily take a start and figure out the main points you need to earn money. Of course, the first step is to define it. To begin with a strict definition:
Betting odds – the probability of a certain outcome in a sporting event, expressed by the bookmaker as a whole or fractional number.
It sounds very difficult, a lot of terms, hard to understand. Therefore, we prefer a different, simpler definition:
The betting odd is the number by which the bet amount is multiplied if the forecast is successful.
It's simple, isn't it? Put, for example, 100 euro on the coefficient 2.0, and if successful, you win 200 euro. Because 100 *2.0 = 200. If you bet 100 on a coefficient of 1.8, you win 180 euro, if you bet on1.01, you win 101 euro.
You can often see the name "cf", quotes, "coefficient", "coeff" and the like. Remember that this still means a coefficient. We will use the same names in this article. So it is easier and without oversampling will turn out.
Who creates the odds
Probably the most popular answer for novice players. It is time to give a comprehensive answer to it. Bookmakers can get odds in three different ways:
- Own analytical staff. The most obvious and obvious option. Bookmakers hire specialists or train them themselves. Then these people are engaged in the formation of lines and odds. Note that only large companies, such as Pinnacle, can maintain an army of analysts.
- Purchase of a line from third-party companies. There are analytical communities that are independent of the bookie, where specialists analyze sports events. They make up a line and quotes, then sell the data to bookmakers. This is what the average largest bookies in the market do.
- Scanning line of another bookmaker. In other words, the bookie simply rewrites the line from another that invested in the formation or purchase. In General, this is prohibited, but the loophole is simple: the odds change slightly in one direction, and some outcomes are simply removed. It turns out a unique line.
By the way, you have noticed that in the line of bookmakers you can find tens of thousands of options for betting. You might get the impression that they are all made by people. Where only time is found! In fact, almost all cefs form special programs based on statistical data. Analysts only correct them. Also, the bookmakers themselves make adjustments, depending on the amount of money not received. But in General, the initial data does not change much, provided that there are no significant changes in the format of the match. For example, the team decided to put a second youth team on the field.
Odds = probability
As we have already mentioned in the scientific definition of the term, coefficients reflect the probability of a certain outcome. For the convenience of players, they are converted to a numeric value. Now we will teach you how to convert them back to percentages. Don't be afraid, there are no complex and incomprehensible formulas, you don't need to resort to the services of services. All you need is a simple calculator or a pen and paper. Or maybe you can do a lot of math in your head?
So, to convert the coefficient to a percentage, you need to divide 100 by coefficient:
- 100 / coefficient
And immediately an example for fixing the material. Given a coefficient of 1.8, we substitute it in the formula and get: 100/1. 8 = 55.5%. So, the chance that odds 1.8 will come in is 55.5%. Let's try to calculate the probability of a coefficient 1.45, and again the formula: 100/1. 45 = 68.9%. These are the chances of a successful outcome.
It is logical to assume that in order to convert the percentages back to coefficients, you need to divide 100 by odds. For example, 100\55.5 = 1.8 or 100/68, 9 = 1.45. Everything is obvious and simple, without surprises. We hope you understand the basic principle.
The question may arise: why is this necessary? What to know how to translate the coefficient into a percentage and Vice versa? What will it do? In fact, it will give a lot. There is a whole system of strategies called value betting, where this skill is incredibly important. Plus, different betting strategies also require appropriate knowledge. We will not expand on them in more detail, the topic of the article is not about that. But the next two chapters will clarify the situation a little.
We have already figured out that the coefficients reflect the probability of a certain outcome in a sporting event. For example, coefficient is 2.0, this is a 50% probability (you remember that 100/2. 0 = 50%). Here it is important to make one remark:
Now we will explain everything, and this statement will take on a new meaning. we will also Work with the coefficient 2.0, for convenience of calculations. We have already figured out that it corresponds to a 50% probability, so the opposite outcome should also be 2.0. it Seems logical, but the bookmakers are not satisfied with this scenario. Imagine that an equal number of bets were placed on each side, one side had to pay out money with a 2.0 cap, and the other side lost. That is, the BC remained at zero. Somehow illogical, where is the profit?
For this reason, the notorious margin was invented. In reality, for two opposite outcomes, the bookmaker will set the values of 1.9 to 1.9. Now the winners need to pay less, and all that remains goes into the pocket of the bookmaker. This is called margin. To make it clearer, let's give an example.
Introductory data: two opposite outcomes 1.9 to 1.9; bets were accepted for each option in the amount of 1 million rubles (for each outcome of 1 million), a total of 2 million. It is logical that one of the options played, half of the clients won, they are paid a fee: 1 000 000 * 1.9 = 1 900 000. The other part of the clients lost, they are not owed anything. This means that the bookmaker received a benefit of 100,000 rubles (2 000 000 – 1 900 000 = 100 000). That's what margin is.
And she is our worst enemy. Since at a distance, it is the margin that takes the player into the negative. We will not go into the postulates of probability theory, we will only note that betting on equally probable outcomes with coefficient 1.9, you will be at a loss. Since the percentage of guesses always tends to 50% in equal markets. Margins eat up revenue.
A little bit about value bet
If you decide to stay in sports betting, many times you will come across such a concept as value bet. Here it is important to enter one more statement:
The probability in the odds reflects only the opinion of the bookmaker. It may be quite different for you. For example, you think that the cf= 2.0 does not correspond to reality, it should not be higher than 1.6.
What does this mean? This makes it possible to catch the bookmaker on his mistake. Making a long-term bet on inflated odds, you will be in the black, since there will be no margin. Yes, there will be periods when the Bank will decrease, but at a distance, probability theory will take its course. Simply put, we do not put on fair odds, but a little higher, which gives us a profit.
This is where we need to know about probabilities and coefficients. Who knows, maybe you will develop a whole scheme of earning on the boulders and become a super successful player. Although finding value is an incredibly difficult task. We have discussed how to do this in our other articles on the site.
Why do the coefficients change rapidly
Watching the betting line, making bets, and watching matches in live mode, you have probably noticed that the odds never stand still, but jump like crazy. Up and down. No stability. What is the reason for this? Let's figure it out together. As already mentioned, analysts form a line and set quotes, then publish a signature that is visible to clients. Then the most interesting thing happens – the coefficients move. There are several reasons for this:
- Changing the introductory words. For example, it became known that a young team will take the field. In this case, the odds on their success will grow significantly, especially if the opponent is motivated and is going to take three points. Or maybe the motivation of the team has changed: three days before the event, we only needed a victory, but the competitors stumbled, and now we can play in a draw.
- Became known to the insider. For example, an injury to the main striker in training, or that the goalkeeper did not get enough sleep. Or maybe a heavy downpour is expected. In General, any factor that can tell on the upcoming game.
- A million other reasons that could affect the bookies line. They are also reinsured, and I react to the slightest information by changing quotes.
But the most important reason is the players themselves, who issue coupons and carry money to the BC. We have already told you that it is important for a bookmaker to keep a balance between all the outcomes and earn on the margin. If one of the markets is overloaded with money, but there is not enough money in the second, then the first will go down, and the second will grow. In General, the bookmaker manipulates quotes to force customers to bet on the desired outcomes. Nothing personal, just business.
The other extreme is a huge bet on a certain outcome. Let's say someone has put a few million rubles on coef 2.0, and on the opposite side there are only a couple of thousand rubles of bids. How to react to the Sportsbook? It will bring down 2.0 to 1.3-1.4 to make it unprofitable to bet on, and raise the other side accordingly to make it attractive to customers. After all, if you do not have time to level the markets, the losses will be significant.
In Live mode, the odds change almost every second. It is no longer a matter of the volume of bets, but of the course of the sporting event itself. If one team leads in the score, the offer for its victory will fall significantly, and the offer for the losing team will increase. I will respond accordingly to other markets, for example, the Total Over will increase and the Total Under will fall . The mechanism, we think, is clear.
Such different odds
You have probably already noticed that the coefficients in each bookmaker are different. It is unrealistic to find two absolutely identical BCS for this indicator. The difference will be at least one hundredth of a fraction, for example, in one 1.7, in another 1.68, in the third 1.72, and so on indefinitely. Significant differences can also occur when one outcome is given with an indicator of 2.0, and the other only 1.5.this, by the way, is a help for forks, but again, we will not go into this topic, today's article is of a different direction.
The differences are due to the fact that each operator uses its own methods for forming the line. We have already described them above. And, by the way, this can be a good idea to use it.
Just put it where the coefficient is highest. For example, in one bookmaker it is only 1.9, and in the other 2.2. the second option is more profitable. Over a long distance, this will give a significant increase to the Bank, even the difference of one hundredth plays a role. Naturally, you need to have accounts in several bookmakers, preferably in 4-5.
You can even use special services that automatically search for the best odds in bookmakers for each outcome. Their services are in most cases free, and it is a sin not to use it. We also recommend that you analyze events yourself and set your own quotes so that you can compare them with the operators ' offer. This is how you train and learn to find inflated coefs.