Arbitrage bets on events from real life

Every day, a lot of things happen in the world that concern the citizens of a particular country. For example, residents of Iowa are interested in who will become their new senator after the upcoming elections. And the population of the UK is worried about what sex the next child born into the royal family will be. At the same time, Europeans are preparing to watch a music competition, wondering who will win. All these events imply the presence of a choice that no one knows about in advance. And if there is a hypothetical choice, then there is also an opportunity to make a bet on the outcome, improving your own financial condition in case of a win.

Bookmakers are well aware that professional betters are not limited to standard sports events, but look through the entire proposed line, including the proposed bets on world events. The higher the demand for this type of betting, the more offers come from bookmakers. If earlier such lines were limited to quotes for possible Oscar winners or presidential election triumphants in a particular country, now the largest companies are trying to reach the maximum audience by offering bets on literally everything, up to the winners of any popular quizzes broadcast on one of the TV channels.

An increase in the number of bets offered and the number of bookmakers adding similar events to their line leads to the fact that arbs also appear on them. Those bettors who specialize in arbitrage strategy know that it does not matter at all at which competition or event the surebet is held, as long as it is able to make a profit. The income from the surebet on the winner of the regional elections is exactly the same as from the result of a volleyball match.

What can I bet on?

Unlike classic sports, it is more difficult to pick up a surebet in world events due to the fact that such bets are offered by a smaller number of companies. For example, 1Xbet always gives a wide line for all kinds of events, Marathon pays attention only to the most important ones, and Winline rarely moves beyond sports. Accordingly, it is not so easy to find suitable coefficients.

Among the most popular options for arbitrage on real events are:

  • Political elections. Elections are held in the world almost every day, but most of them go unnoticed by bookmakers. The bookmakers understand that the future governor of one of the regions of Romania cares only for the inhabitants of this very region. Another thing is when it comes to a really important vote. For example, the US presidential election. Their advantage is that the winner can be either a Republican or a Democrat. That is, two options, which is great for a sorebet. If there are more candidates in the race, then it is enough to determine two favorites to calculate the coefficients. However, in this case, a sure bet on politics is no longer a 100% chance of winning, because someone else can win, from whom no one expected it. Most of the elections are arranged in such a way that they have either two favorites, between whom the main struggle will unfold, or one main contender. In this case, you can pick up two bets, one of which will be this main contender, and the other - any of his opponents. Luckily, bookies often offer “someone else” or “win no” bets.
  • Musical and cinematographic competitions. All sorts of awards given to musicians and filmmakers are regularly held in many countries. International events attract a large number of participants and spectators. This is especially true of major events such as the Oscars, Golden Globes, Emmys and Grammys. Many bettors, both versed in cinema and focusing solely on odds, strive to bet on the winner in a particular category. However, finding a arb in this case is much more difficult. The problem is that at least 5-6 applicants participate in each nomination, each of which has a chance of winning. It is impossible to calculate the surebet in this case, but you can always go the other way: either find the category where there are only two contenders for victory, or determine a clear favorite in one of the nominations by betting on it and against it.
  • Weather at the airport. Bets on the weather are accepted by many bookmakers, but the inaccuracy of measurements and the difference in temperatures in different areas of a city can cause disputes. Most often, rates are taken on the air temperature at a particular airport. Bookies keep track of up-to-date data, and allow players to both bet on a specific number of degrees, and choose a kind of total - more or less than a certain value. A lot of time spent looking for a surebet in this case can pay off with high odds, since an unstable temperature situation introduces a certain uncertainty to bookmakers when setting quotes.
  • One-time events that interest people around the world. In addition to the standard annual stories, there are also special events. For example, in 2012, almost all companies took bets on whether the world would end. And in 2020, you could bet on when the Coronavirus pandemic would officially end. The convenience for arbitrageurs in this case is that most of these bets are based on the choice of “yes” or “no”. And when there are only two options, then you can find suitable quotes for the surebet. Now some companies are accepting deposits on the possible start of a nuclear war. It is not clear who will pay the winnings if this bet passes.
  • Events taking place around the royal family. Despite the fact that officially the British monarchy does not have much power not only in the world, but also in its own state, almost all residents of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are closely following every step of their monarchs. What gender will Harry and Meghan's next child be, will Kate and William get divorced, etc. any self-respecting British betting company contains a number of bets related to events in the royal family. And the variety of bookies allows you to find a surebet.

In order to get acquainted with quotes for real events, just go to the line of any bookmaker and scroll down. Where the main sports end, less popular types of competitions begin, which can also increase the pot.

Pros and cons of arbitrage bets on real events

Among the advantages that surebets have for real life, it is worth noting:

  • The outcome is always clear. There is no extra time, canceled goals, leader injury or controversial points, because of which you have to contact technical support. The better always knows that the surebet is placed correctly, the odds are not mixed up, and the event is interpreted unambiguously by both bookmakers.
  • Possibility to select an event according to your taste. If the player is interested in politics, then it is worth betting on the outcome of the elections. If you are active on social media, you can choose to bet on which TIkTok user will have the most followers by the end of the year. If you are interested in the space industry, you can look at quotes on who will be the first woman in outer space. The lines of bookmakers are expanding every day, which allows every professional player to find the right event.
  • Work with leading bookmakers. The more successful and reliable the company, the more events it offers for betting. If, when placing a surebet in the third division of the Nigerian handball championship, you have to use an account in little-known bookmakers, from which it is not known what to expect, then everything is always as transparent as possible.

The disadvantages of betting arbitrage in this case are also obvious:

  • Long wait for outcome. Arbitrageurs strive for a quick game, when in one day you can pick up 10 or more options for arbitration, rapidly increasing the bank. Real events that you can bet on do not happen so often, which slows down the strategy or goes beyond it.
  • The type of events used does not affect the attitude of bookmakers to surebets. It doesn't matter to the security team what a suspicious player is betting on, because even balances, fractional amounts and non-standard behavior remain in place.
  • Difficulty in finding a suitable surebet due to the absence of the selected event in many companies. It takes more time to calculate and select the right coefficients.
  • The lack of the necessary data in the usual scanners. Resources focused on finding arbitrage situations in sports are not designed to track such surebets. Everything will have to be done manually.
  • It is not always possible to choose two options. If we are talking about any contest in which there are several participants and there is no clear favorite, then it will not work to make a surebet. By choosing the two most preferred options, the better runs the risk of losing in both cases, which is completely unacceptable in the case of this strategy.

Summing up, it can be noted that arbitrage in betting on real life events takes place, but it differs in a number of features that not every player wants to deal with. Those who like the low rate of betting will be able to find a number of attractive options in such surebets. And those arbers who need to turn their bank around quickly, up to dozens of times a day, will most likely bypass such an arbitrage opportunity, because such events do not occur so intensively. What is more important - ROI or percentage of profitability - we read further in the article on our website.