SMARTSCANER

Can you profit from long-term arbitrage?

Is it possible to make money on sports arbitrage by placing bets months before the event?
This article explores long-term arbitrage: which markets are suitable, how to calculate profit, and what pitfalls await arbers. Includes real-life examples of arbitrage on championships and transfers, along with the pros and cons of the strategy.

Sports arbitrage (surebets) is traditionally associated with fast trades, where differences in bookmaker odds guarantee a profit within minutes or hours. But can this strategy be applied to long-term markets — for example, placing bets on championship outcomes, tournament brackets, or transfer deals months in advance?

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In this article, we’ll explore:

  • How long-term arbs differ from classic ones
  • Which types of sports events are suitable for this kind of arbitrage
  • Real-world examples and calculations
  • Risks and pitfalls of the strategy

 

1. What are long-term arbitrage bets?

A long-term arbitrage bet is an opportunity where bets are placed on an event scheduled to happen in weeks or even months.

🔹Key differences from short-term arbitrage bets:

Parameter Classic Arbitrage Bets Long-Term Arbitrage Bets
Time to outcome Seconds / Minutes / Hours Days / Months
Liquidity High Low (odds change less frequently)
Risk Minimal (if placed quickly) Higher (bookmaker may change the odds line)
Profitability 3–7% 5–15% (due to lower competition)

 

Example:

  • In January, Bookmaker A offers 2.10 on Man City to win the Premier League, while Bookmaker B offers 1.90 on them not to win.
  • If you distribute your stakes correctly, you can secure a guaranteed profit of 2–3%.

 

 

2. Which markets are suitable for long-term arbitrage?

Not all events are equally good for this strategy. The best options include:

🔹 1. Tournament outcomes (leagues, cups)

  • Football (Premier League, Champions League)
  • Basketball (NBA, EuroLeague)
  • Esports (Dota 2 — The International, CS:GO — Major)

Why?

  • Odds change slowly.
  • Top-tier bookmakers offer high liquidity.

🔹 2. Transfer markets

  • Bets on player transfers ("Will Kudri join PSG – yes/no")
  • Loans, swaps

Feature:

  • High odds gaps (arbs of 10–15%).
  • Risk: the deal might fall through at the last minute.

🔹 3. Political/organizational decisions

  • Coach replacements
  • Team disqualifications
  • Real-life events – competition wins, presidential elections, etc.

 

3. How to find long-term arbitrage bets?

🔹 Step 1. Choosing a scanner

The best scanners are fully capable of identifying long-term arbitrage opportunities. Set a filter for match start time — this will narrow the results to what you need.

🔹 Step 2. Event filtering

  • Select only events where the outcome date is more than 30 days away.
  • Avoid matches with a high risk of cancellation (for example, due to weather).

🔹 Step 3. Stake calculation

If you're using arbitrage scanners, they usually include built-in calculators for quick stake calculations.

 

 

 

4. Risks and issues of the strategy

🔹 1. Odds changes

The bookmaker may:
– remove the market
– significantly change the odds (especially if one leg of the bet is already placed)

🔹 2. Bet void due to non-fulfillment

Example:

  • You bet on Haaland transferring to Real Madrid, but the transfer fails → the bet is voided

How to reduce the risk: choose events with a high probability of occurring

🔹 3. Funds freeze

Money stays in the bookmaker for weeks → cannot be used for other arbs
What is ROI?

 

 

5. Real-Life Examples of Long-Term Arbitrage Bets

🔹Example 1. Leicester Winning the Premier League (2015/16)

At the beginning of the season:

  • Bookmaker A: Leicester to win the league – 50.00
  • Bookmaker B: Leicester NOT to win – 1.01

Arbitrage margin: 1.5% (with proper stake distribution).

🔹Example 2. Neymar’s Transfer to PSG (2017)

One month before the transfer:

  • “Neymar to stay at Barcelona” – 1.60
  • “Neymar to leave” – 2.50 at other bookmakers → 3% arbitrage.

 

 

Conclusion: Is It Worth Playing Long-Term Arbitrage?

✅ Pros:

  • Lower competition (most arbers focus on fast markets).

  • Potential to catch high-yield arbs (5–15%).

❌ Cons:

  • Higher risks (event cancellations, line changes).

  • Funds are locked up for extended periods.

👍 Bottom line

Long-term arbitrage is possible but requires:

  • Careful event selection.

  • Deep analysis of bookmaker lines.

  • A large bankroll (due to lower deal frequency).

If you're ready for these conditions, the strategy can generate a steady income of up to 10% per month.