Home Articles Can you profit from long-term arbitrage?

Can you profit from long-term arbitrage?

Sports arbitrage (surebets) is traditionally associated with fast trades, where differences in bookmaker odds guarantee a profit within minutes or hours. But can this strategy be applied to long-term markets — for example, placing bets on championship outcomes, tournament brackets, or transfer deals months in advance?

In this article, we’ll explore:

How long-term arbs differ from classic ones
Which types of sports events are suitable for this kind of arbitrage
Real-world examples and calculations
Risks and pitfalls of the strategy

1. What are long-term arbitrage bets?

A long-term arbitrage bet is an opportunity where bets are placed on an event scheduled to happen in weeks or even months.

🔹Key differences from short-term arbitrage bets:

Parameter	Classic Arbitrage Bets	Long-Term Arbitrage Bets
Time to outcome	Seconds / Minutes / Hours	Days / Months
Liquidity	High	Low (odds change less frequently)
Risk	Minimal (if placed quickly)	Higher (bookmaker may change the odds line)
Profitability	3–7%	5–15% (due to lower competition)

Example:

In January, Bookmaker A offers 2.10 on Man City to win the Premier League, while Bookmaker B offers 1.90 on them not to win.
If you distribute your stakes correctly, you can secure a guaranteed profit of 2–3%.

2. Which markets are suitable for long-term arbitrage?

Not all events are equally good for this strategy. The best options include:

🔹 1. Tournament outcomes (leagues, cups)

Football (Premier League, Champions League)
Basketball (NBA, EuroLeague)
Esports (Dota 2 — The International, CS:GO — Major)

Why?

Odds change slowly.
Top-tier bookmakers offer high liquidity.

🔹 2. Transfer markets

Bets on player transfers ("Will Kudri join PSG – yes/no")
Loans, swaps

Feature:

High odds gaps (arbs of 10–15%).
Risk: the deal might fall through at the last minute.

🔹 3. Political/organizational decisions

Coach replacements
Team disqualifications
Real-life events – competition wins, presidential elections, etc.

3. How to find long-term arbitrage bets?

🔹 Step 1. Choosing a scanner

The best scanners are fully capable of identifying long-term arbitrage opportunities. Set a filter for match start time — this will narrow the results to what you need.

🔹 Step 2. Event filtering

Select only events where the outcome date is more than 30 days away.
Avoid matches with a high risk of cancellation (for example, due to weather).

🔹 Step 3. Stake calculation

If you're using arbitrage scanners, they usually include built-in calculators for quick stake calculations.

4. Risks and issues of the strategy

🔹 1. Odds changes

The bookmaker may:
– remove the market
– significantly change the odds (especially if one leg of the bet is already placed)

🔹 2. Bet void due to non-fulfillment

Example:

You bet on Haaland transferring to Real Madrid, but the transfer fails → the bet is voided

How to reduce the risk: choose events with a high probability of occurring

🔹 3. Funds freeze

Money stays in the bookmaker for weeks → cannot be used for other arbs
What is ROI?

5. Real-Life Examples of Long-Term Arbitrage Bets

🔹Example 1. Leicester Winning the Premier League (2015/16)

At the beginning of the season:

Bookmaker A: Leicester to win the league – 50.00
Bookmaker B: Leicester NOT to win – 1.01

Arbitrage margin: 1.5% (with proper stake distribution).

🔹Example 2. Neymar’s Transfer to PSG (2017)

One month before the transfer:

“Neymar to stay at Barcelona” – 1.60
“Neymar to leave” – 2.50 at other bookmakers → 3% arbitrage.

Conclusion: Is It Worth Playing Long-Term Arbitrage?

✅ Pros:

Lower competition (most arbers focus on fast markets).
Potential to catch high-yield arbs (5–15%).

❌ Cons:

Higher risks (event cancellations, line changes).
Funds are locked up for extended periods.

👍 Bottom line

Long-term arbitrage is possible but requires:

Careful event selection.
Deep analysis of bookmaker lines.
A large bankroll (due to lower deal frequency).

If you're ready for these conditions, the strategy can generate a steady income of up to 10% per month.

roi bankroll