Varieties of surebets
To begin, let us recall the formula for calculating surebets, it is suitable for any kind of arbitration situation.
C = 1/K1 + 1/K2
C is a control coefficient.
K1 – coefficient for the first event.
K2 – coefficient for the second event.
Substitute quotes of bookmaker in this formula, and if the control factor in the end will be higher than 1, then there is no plug. If the value is less than 1, the arb is present, and the lower the number, the more profitable the arbitration situation.
The most popular and common option of win-win bets is two-way arbs, which are preferred by most players. Plus they are formed in a very large number of hundreds of bookmakers. Scanners easily find such arbitrage situations and offer them to players. Due to the simplicity and ease of use, these surebets occupy the first place in popularity among players, and among professionals and among beginners.
The essence of two-way arbs is simple. There are match and two opposite outcome for him, for example: P1 and X2; total more and total less; handicap -1,5 and +1,5. It is obvious that if to put on them within the same bookie, then the output will go negative, the margin will eat up all the profits. But if you issue a coupon in two different bookmakers, you can find an arbitration situation that will eventually bring a win regardless of the outcome of the match. In theory, it is not necessary to take bets with a likely return: solid odds and totals, such as -/+1, the number of goals 2,3 and so on. But who as it is more convenient, in which case the user will simply return the money back without the risk of losing. Although professionals do not play, because it's a waste of time and another risk to get into the field of view of the bookmaker.
Example of two-outcomes arbs
Let's consolidate the material and illustrate the surebet option of the two outcomes. As an example, let's take a football match and its markets on TO 2,5 and TU 2,5. For example, in one bookie is given the coefficient on total is more than 2,2, the other for the total is less than 2.3. Now we substitute these numbers into the formula and get the following result:
C =1/2,2 + 1/2,3 = 0,88
The number is less than 1, so there is a sureber. And its yield is 12%. It is calculated simply: 100 – 0,88 *100 = 12. Such income will be received by the user in case of registration of the coupon on an event. The same calculation principle applies to all variants of two-way surebets.
Advantages of 2-outcomes surebets
The surebet of the two outcomes has obvious advantages, briefly outline them:
- The most common option. They are present in all scanners in a very large number. Every day you can find thousands of markets for betting.
- Easy to understand. Only 2 opposite outcomes are given, each player will be able to understand what to bet on and where to look for this type of bet in the line.
- Quick calculation. It is enough to drive two values into the calculator to get the result. Yes, manual calculations are fast, you just need to use the above formula.
- Speed rates. Even an inexperienced player can quickly issue coupons in two bookmakers. You will need to do a minimum of action. Speed is the main factor of successful surebetting, especially when playing in Live mode.
- It's easier to look manually. Now, of course, there are special scanners, but some users prefer to manually search for arbitration situations. The events of the two options is much easier to detect and make a quick bet.
- Great for training before moving on to more complex circuits.
Beginners are advised at first to pay attention exclusively to the two-outcomes arbs, as an easier option for testing rates and a set of experience. And professional betters mainly put on two markets, as they say, the easier – the better.
Among the drawbacks, it should be noted that such arbitrage situations are detected by bookmakers quickly and effectively, especially with high profitability. Players have to resort to tricks and purchase additional accounts to continue to play in the bookmaker. However, the income of experienced users is such that more than pays for these costs. Plus the "life" time of the surebets is quite short, especially in Live mode.
In second place in popularity are 3-outcomes surebets, they are resorted to less than the above option, but still they can be called in demand. Not all scanners have them, only the largest and most modern. Arbitrage situations are formed on 3 markets as often as on 2 markets, but beginners usually do not use them, only experienced players who know how to quickly issue coupons.
Three-outcomes surebets are essentially easy to understand. There is a certain event and 3 markets to it that are mutually exclusive. Usually it is the outcome of the match, where the teams can disperse the world. That is, the options are as follows: Win1, draw and Win2. To bet on all these elections in one bookmaker is meaningless, there will be a loss. But you can take each market in 2 different or even 3 bookies and issue a coupon in them. Also possible variations with the total, for example, Total Under1,5- exactly 2 goals -Total Over2,5. Or with handicap: -0,5, +1, +1,5. Usually such outcomes are taken in 3 bookmakers, not in two as usual.
Example of 3-outcomes arbs
Let us consider an example of an arbitration situation with 3 outcomes. As an example, as always, take the conditional football game and its main markets to the winner of the meeting or a draw. For example, in 3 bookies the following coefficients are given:
victory of 1 team – 2,85;
draw – 4.32;
victory of 2 team – 3.2.
It turns out a good surebet with a yield of 11%. This indicator is calculated by the standard formula: C = 1/K1 + 1/K2. Just substitute in the numbers, but add the third denominator 1/K3, so the outcomes 3. As a result, we get:
S =1/2,85 +1/4,32 + 1/3,2 = 0,89.
Next 100 – 0,89 *100 = 11%. This will be the profitability of the arbitration situation. Such calculations are made for other types of three-outcomes arbs.
Advantages of 3-outcomes surebets
Briefly outline the advantages of a surebet of three outcomes:
- It's harder for bookies to find. But provided that the rates are made in three bookmakers. If you take 2 opposite outcomes in one BM, it will be very suspicious.
- You can find arbitrage situations with very high returns. Since they are more difficult to find, BM does not always have time to quickly lower the coefficients. And it is worth using.
- Time "life" is often long, for the above reasons.
As for the shortcomings, they are also present, first of all it is the need to issue coupons for 3 outcomes, which automatically reduces the speed of work. Really do not have time to put one of the "shoulders", which will lead to financial losses in an unsuccessful scenario. Although such arbitration situations "live" longer, so the risks are also reduced. Another disadvantage – more complex calculations, but here come to the aid of calculators that will help in this and repeatedly facilitate the task.
Three-way surebets are recommended only for experienced players who have a certain skill and have learned how to quickly make a bet at the same time in several bookies. Beginners initially it is better to resort to 2-outcomes arbs, otherwise, due to inexperience, it is possible to lose your entire bankroll.
Combination of surebets
We pass to the most interesting, but complex option of surebets, when in building a win-win strategy is used 4 and more outcome. This variation is used by players very rarely, and only the most experienced and risky. However, they have every right to exist, with their help really raise the Bank. In this case, the client issues a coupon for as many as 4 or more mutually exclusive markets, both in 2 and in a larger number of bookies.
The formation of the arbitration situations of 4 or more of the outcomes occurs according to the same principle as other options, but it involves a greater number of markets. In the vast majority of cases, this is the exact score for a tennis match, consisting of a maximum of 3 sets (the victory of one tennis player in 2 sets). In this case, account will be taken into account 2:1, 1:2, 2:0, 0:2. Putting on all the variations, the player with any result of the match will remain in the black. This is the most obvious and common example, such surebets can be found on football. For example, a combination of odds, totals and exact accounts and other outcomes. But let's look at them in more detail.
Example 4-outcomes surebet
As usual, for clarity, consider a specific variant of the surebet. As an example, let's take the same conditional football match. On it in 4 different bookmakers comes 4 outcome in the form of:
- exact score 0:0, coefficient 15;
- exactly 1 goal in the match, coeff 6;
- exactly 2 goals in the match, coeff 6.5;
- total goals over 2.5, coeff 2.2.
Substitute all these numbers in the formula and get the following result:
C = 1/15 + 1/6 + 1/6,5 +1/2,2 = 0,88.
The value turned out to be less than 1, so there is a surebet, and with a yield of 12%. Such variants of the four-outcomes arbs can be many, you only need to be able to see them and make the necessary calculations. As an example, consider another variation using combination bets in football:
- the first team won't lose & Total Over 2,5 with odds of 4,5;
- the second team will not lose and Total Under 2,5. 3,8;
- winning the first team in 1 or 2 goals with a coefficient 4,1;
- the individual Total of the second team is more than 2.5 for 4.
Profit 2%, we calculate it also by the formula, here we will not give detailed calculations, they are the same as in previous cases.
Surebets for 5 or more outcomes
There are also such large arbitrage situations, they are used very rarely and usually to the exact score in tennis, consisting of 5 sets. Six exact accounts are taken:
One coupon is issued for each option in 2 or more bookies. The number of bookmakers may not be limited at all. It is only important to have time to bet on all possible outcomes until the quotes become unprofitable. Another variation with the use of accurate football scores:
- exactly 2 balls;
- total more than 2.5.
Such options can be a huge number for any sport. The profitability of such arbitrage situations is calculated using the standard formula.
Advantages of surebets
One, but a significant advantage of 4 or more outcomes surbets is that they are almost impossible to calculate. Bookmakers do not have such tools yet, and they do not seek to spend money on their creation, because players who put arbs on 4 or more events are not so much, they do not bring much damage. Customers who have learned to play on such arbitrage situations usually do not face account blocking, lowering of highs and other unpleasant sanctions of bookies. It is only important to issue coupons not in a pair of BM, and use several, then the account security will be provided almost 100%.
Among the disadvantages of surebets combinations in the first place it is worth noting that the design of coupons for 4 or more outcome requires a fairly long time. It is important to quickly confirm all bets, otherwise the coefficients can change and bring a significant minus in the end. Second – you will have to have accounts in a large number of bookmakers, usually their number should be at least a dozen to comfortably find the necessary arbitration situations.
Another important aspect is that modern readers are not looking for a surebet with more than 4 outcomes. The introduction of such functionality would be too expensive, besides there is practically no demand for it. Perhaps in the foreseeable future in the best services such a proposal will appear, because earning on classic arbs is becoming more and more difficult, bookmakers are improving the technology of tracking inconvenient customers. If in any scanner there will be a function of search of 4 and more initial arbitration situations, we will surely notify about it within our project.
Those are 2-outcomes, 3-outcomes and combination of surebets. Each option has advantages and disadvantages, which to choose, to decide the player. We recommend beginners to start with 2 initial arbitration situations, and after the experience and skill to resort to more complex variations.