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Evaluating the Viability of an Arbitrage Bet: Timing and Lifetime Metrics
Evaluating the Viability of an Arbitrage Bet: Timing and Lifetime Metrics
Arbitrage betting — also known as surebets — is a strategy that allows you to earn a profit regardless of the outcome of a sporting event by exploiting differences in odds across various bookmakers. However, not all arbitrage opportunities are created equal: some disappear within seconds, while others can “live” for several minutes.
That’s why one of the most important skills for any arber is analyzing and understanding the lifespan of a surebet. In this article, we’ll explore what factors affect how long an arbitrage bet stays active, how to measure its duration, and which tools can help you make the most of this knowledge in practice.
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1. What Is the “Lifespan” of an Arbitrage Bet?
The lifespan of an arbitrage opportunity refers to the amount of time the bet remains valid — that is, the period during which all legs of the bet can be placed at the listed odds with the expected profit.
This is a critical factor: if a surebet lives for less than 10 seconds, the bettor might not have enough time to place all the necessary bets, especially when doing it manually.
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2.Factors that affect the lifespan of an arbitrage bet
2.1 Popularity of the event
The more high-profile the match (for example, the Champions League), the faster bookmakers synchronize their odds. Arbs on such events typically live for just 5 to 15 seconds on average.
2.2 Type of bet
Main outcomes (1X2: home win, away win, draw) are adjusted more quickly than handicaps, totals, or player statistics. The longest-living arbs often involve individual player totals or niche markets like corners.
2.3 Number of bookmakers involved
If an arbitrage opportunity is found between two major bookmakers (ex. 1XBet and Bet365), it will disappear faster than an arb between smaller, slower-updating sportsbooks.
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Some bookmakers update their odds every 5 seconds, while others do it every 15–30 seconds. The slower the updates, the longer the arbitrage opportunity tends to last.
2.5 External factors (news, goals, red cards)
In live mode, changes on the field instantly affect the odds. Arbs triggered by such events often last less than 3 to 5 seconds.
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3. How to Measure the Lifespan of an Arbitrage Opportunity
3.1 Using a scanner
Most advanced scanners (such as BreakingBet) show how long an arb remained in their database before disappearing.
3.2 Keeping your own statistics
You can create a spreadsheet to track the following:
Date and time
Event
Type of bet
Bookmakers involved
Profitability (%)
Lifespan of the arb (in seconds)
After 2–4 weeks, this data can help you identify which types of bets and bookmakers tend to produce longer-lasting arbitrage opportunities.
3.3 Automating the analysis
Some scanners allow you to export data to Excel or CSV. You can analyze it using Python, Excel, or Google Sheets. For example, calculate the average lifespan of arbs by bet type or by bookmaker.
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4. Average vs. Median Lifespan: What Matters?
The average lifespan is the total sum of all surebets lifespans divided by their count.
The median is the lifespan of the arb that stands exactly in the middle of a sorted list. This is especially important because surebets with very long lifespans can distort the average statistics.
For example:
Average lifespan: 24 seconds
Median: 9 seconds
Conclusion: most arbs live less than 10 seconds, and only a few survive for a minute or more.
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5. How to increase your chances of placing a bet in time
5.1 Use fast scanners
Choose scanners that update odds every 2 to 4 seconds and show live arbitrage opportunities without delay.
5.2 Automate your betting
Connecting via API, using bots, or integrating with bookmaker accounts can reduce the time from scanner to bet to just 1 or 2 seconds.
5.3 Use lifespan filters
Some scanners allow you to set a filter like "show arbs lasting at least 15 seconds" — this greatly improves the chances of placing the bet in time.
5.4 Test bookmakers
Check how long it takes to place a bet with different bookmakers. If an arb disappears in 5 seconds but placing a bet takes 8, it's not efficient to work with that bookmaker.
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6. Lifespan of arbitrage opportunities: classification
Ultra-short (up to 5 seconds) — almost impossible to catch manually, only work with automation
Short (5–15 seconds) — suitable for semi-automatic mode
Medium (15–30 seconds) — possible to catch manually with very fast reaction
Long-living (30 seconds to several minutes) — allow for calm and steady work
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7. Mistakes and myths
Myth: if an arb lasted for 2 minutes, it’s safe. In fact, long-living arbs may result from line errors and can be voided.
Mistake: placing bets on everything. Even “stable” arbs carry risk if a bookmaker limits your stake or cancels bets.
Mistake: underestimating captcha time, confirmations, login delays. These often take up precious seconds.
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8. Practice and conclusions
To work successfully with arbitrage betting, it’s not enough to just find arbs — you must be able to place them in time. Analyzing lifespan helps filter out unsuitable arbs, reduce stress, and improve overall ROI.
We recommend:
tracking your arb statistics
choosing bookmakers with slow odds updates
focusing on less popular markets
using filters and automation
This way, your bets become strategic rather than random, based on real-life performance indicators.
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Conclusion
The lifespan of an arb is one of the key metrics for anyone serious about arbitrage. The better you understand and control this parameter, the more consistent your profit becomes. Use data, numbers, and tools — and turn arb hunting into a systematic and profitable process.
