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Evaluating the Viability of an Arbitrage Bet: Timing and Lifetime Metrics
Evaluating the Viability of an Arbitrage Bet: Timing and Lifetime Metrics
Arbitrage betting — also known as surebets — is a strategy that allows you to earn a profit regardless of the outcome of a sporting event by exploiting differences in odds across various bookmakers. However, not all arbitrage opportunities are created equal: some disappear within seconds, while others can “live” for several minutes.
That’s why one of the most important skills for any arber is analyzing and understanding the lifespan of a surebet. In this article, we’ll explore what factors affect how long an arbitrage bet stays active, how to measure its duration, and which tools can help you make the most of this knowledge in practice.
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1. What Is the “Lifespan” of an Arbitrage Bet?
The lifespan of an arbitrage opportunity refers to the amount of time the bet remains valid — that is, the period during which all legs of the bet can be placed at the listed odds with the expected profit.
This is a critical factor: if a surebet lives for less than 10 seconds, the bettor might not have enough time to place all the necessary bets, especially when doing it manually.
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2.Factors that affect the lifespan of an arbitrage bet
2.1 Popularity of the event
The more high-profile the match (for example, the Champions League), the faster bookmakers synchronize their odds. Arbs on such events typically live for just 5 to 15 seconds on average.
2.2 Type of bet
Main outcomes (1X2: home win, away win, draw) are adjusted more quickly than handicaps, totals, or player statistics. The longest-living arbs often involve individual player totals or niche markets like corners.
2.3 Number of bookmakers involved
If an arbitrage opportunity is found between two major bookmakers (ex. 1XBet and Bet365), it will disappear faster than an arb between smaller, slower-updating sportsbooks.
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Some bookmakers update their odds every 5 seconds, while others do it every 15–30 seconds. The slower the updates, the longer the arbitrage opportunity tends to last.
2.5 External factors (news, goals, red cards)
In live mode, changes on the field instantly affect the odds. Arbs triggered by such events often last less than 3 to 5 seconds.
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3. How to Measure the Lifespan of an Arbitrage Opportunity
3.1 Using a scanner
Most advanced scanners (such as BreakingBet) show how long an arb remained in their database before disappearing.
3.2 Keeping your own statistics
You can create a spreadsheet to track the following:
Date and time
Event
Type of bet
Bookmakers involved
Profitability (%)
Lifespan of the arb (in seconds)
After 2–4 weeks, this data can help you identify which types of bets and bookmakers tend to produce longer-lasting arbitrage opportunities.
3.3 Automating the analysis
Some scanners allow you to export data to Excel or CSV. You can analyze it using Python, Excel, or Google Sheets. For example, calculate the average lifespan of arbs by bet type or by bookmaker.
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4. Average vs. Median Lifespan: What Matters?
The average lifespan is the total sum of all fork lifespans divided by their count.
The median is the lifespan of the fork that stands exactly in the middle of a sorted list. This is especially important because forks with very long lifespans can distort the average statistics.
For example:
Average lifespan: 24 seconds
Median: 9 seconds
Conclusion: most forks live less than 10 seconds, and only a few survive for a minute or more.
